Analysis of the Shiba Inu movement: when the 30% rally meets the whale dump

The cost of Shiba Inu today stands at $0.00000862, marking a 30% rebound in the first week of 2026. However, behind this movement lie contradictory dynamics that leave two completely opposite scenarios open: continuation of the recovery or a distribution trap orchestrated by major holders.

Contrasting signals from whales: accumulation or unloading?

The breakout from the support zone at $0.00000700 (late December) triggered an immediate reaction from major wallets. Transfers of SHIB exceeding $100,000 surged by 111% in early January, intensifying a pattern already observed in December with 406 transactions moving 1.06 trillion tokens to exchanges.

This change in direction is significant: during the second half of 2025, whales were quietly accumulating. Today, they send massive amounts to exchanges during a bullish phase, a behavior typically associated with distribution. Spot flow data confirm this reading, recording net outflows of $332,790 on January 10.

The concentration of supply amplifies these risks: 62.65% of the total SHIB supply resides in major wallets, with a single address controlling 41% (estimated value: $3.3 billion). Few operations by these giants can trigger exaggerated price swings in both directions.

Technical reading: the breakout requires confirmation

The price of Shiba Inu has surpassed the 20- and 50-day exponential moving averages after breaking out of a descending channel that had been compressing it for seven months. The peak touched $0.00001020, but the subsequent retracement shows that buyers do not yet fully control the situation.

The current chart structure presents:

• EMA 20 days: $0.00000822
• EMA 50 days: $0.00000832
• EMA 100 days: $0.00000912
• EMA 200 days: $0.00001056
• Supertrend: $0.00000754

Shiba Inu is in the neutral zone between the 50- and 100-day EMAs. To validate a genuine trend reversal, the price must conquer $0.00000912, paving the way toward the key resistance at $0.00001056 (EMA 200 days). Conversely, losing $0.00000832 invalidates the breakout and triggers a test of the Supertrend support at $0.00000754.

On the 2-hour timeframe, Shiba Inu consolidates around the central Bollinger band ($0.00000868). The lower band at $0.00000856 represents the next support level. A Parabolic SAR at $0.00000878 marks the critical zone: a close above this level would shift momentum in favor of buyers, confirming the defense of the bullish structure.

Weak sentiment despite movement

Here emerges the main paradox: the volume in 24 hours is only $106.5 million, drastically lower than $500 millions recorded in previous rallies of 2024. The Fear & Greed Index stands at 28, indicating fear among traders rather than the greed that usually characterizes meme coin rallies.

This gap between price movement and retail confirmation is concerning. Small investors have not joined the movement, suggesting that the move may be primarily driven by market positioning rather than genuine renewed interest.

The burn factor: declining intensity

Shiba Inu’s burn rate surged by 10,728.80% on January 1, with $172 millions of tokens sent to irrecoverable wallets(. However, subsequent activity showed drops of up to 17%, indicating that the coordinated momentum did not persist.

Although the burning mechanism remains central to the project’s deflationary strategy, extreme percentage increases translate into modest reductions relative to the 589 trillion tokens in circulation. The lack of sustainability in burning after the initial peak reduces its deflationary impact on price dynamics.

Bullish vs bearish scenario

If SHIB recovers $0.00000912: the breakout gains structural credibility, especially if accompanied by increased volumes and the Fear & Greed Index above 50. The initial target becomes $0.00001056, with potential extension toward $0.00001200 if the push persists.

If SHIB loses $0.00000832: the breakout is a failed move, confirming that the rally was mainly distribution by whales. The cost of Shiba Inu would slide toward $0.00000754 )Supertrend, with risks of further declines toward $0.00000700 if selling accelerates.

The key lies in two elements: consolidation above the 50-day EMA and a return of retail attention through volume and positive sentiment. Without confirmation from these indicators, the movement remains a liquidity transaction rather than the start of a new market phase.