Risk appetite is returning: why the stock market is preparing for a turbulent week of economic data

hodl_therapist · 2026-01-15T13:44:06+00:00

The first full trading week of 2026 saw a notable shift in market sentiment, with rising stock values indicating increased investor risk appetite. The upcoming week will pose significant tests for this trend, including key inflation and retail sales data. Federal Reserve officials are anticipated to maintain current interest rates amidst geopolitical tensions, making this week critical for market forecasts.

hodl_therapist

2026-01-15 13:44:06

Abstract generation in progress

The first full trading week of 2026 has demonstrated a striking shift in sentiment. The synchronized rise of cross-asset classes on Wall Street shows that investors are willing to take risks. The S&P 500 increased by 1.6%, and the Russell 2000 grew an impressive 4.6% over several days. Most notably, the passive ETF Vanguard S&P 500 (VOO) attracted $10 billion in the first days of the year, indicating a massive capital inflow into American stocks. Such inflow pace suggests optimism not seen in recent months.

Economic Calendar of the Week: Key Tests for Global Growth

However, the next seven days will be a tough test of this positive momentum. Three dates will change the market landscape.

Tuesday, 21:30 Minsk time — The US will release a comprehensive set of inflation data. The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) without seasonal adjustment, the monthly CPI with seasonal adjustment, the annual and monthly Core CPI — each figure could potentially alter the scenario regarding monetary policy. If CPI remains stubborn, the Fed’s “hawks” will have an argument against further rate cuts.

Wednesday, 21:30 — Retail sales for November, the annual and monthly Producer Price Index (PPI) for the last month, and the US current account for Q3. PPI is especially relevant — it shows inflationary pressures on production earlier than CPI. If producers continue raising prices, it signals persistent inflation.

Thursday, 21:30 — Initial jobless claims, NY Fed and Philly Fed manufacturing activity indices, and monthly import price dynamics. Together, this trio paints a picture of the labor market and domestic demand.

Federal Reserve in Limbo: No Rate Hike Until a New Chair Is Appointed

Alongside the data releases, Fed officials will take to the microphones. Bank of America Global Research has already explicitly stated: the central bank will not cut rates until Powell’s successor is appointed. Friday’s data only strengthened this confidence. This means the policy rate will remain at current levels regardless of what CPI and PPI show.

Geopolitical Tensions as an Invisible Hand

This optimistic scenario is compounded by geopolitical factors. US Secretary of State Pompeo has scheduled meetings with officials from Denmark and Greenland — the very fact raises questions about inter-state tensions in the North Atlantic. Escalations caused by anti-government protests in Iran (including the capital) also remain an uncertain variable for risk sentiment.

Result: the synthesis of macroeconomic uncertainty and international tension makes this week decisive for those predicting a market turn.

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