Bitcoin's decoupling from global M2 has become increasingly noticeable since mid-2025, and this divergence continued to widen through early 2026. This shift raises a critical question: what comes next for BTC as macro conditions evolve?

The optimistic narrative—one that aligns with major institutional perspectives—hinges on a straightforward thesis. Global central banks could begin easing monetary policy sooner than expected. Quantitative tightening cycles are losing steam. And critically, M2 growth may finally re-accelerate after years of contraction.

If that scenario plays out, Bitcoin's recent decoupling from broad money supply metrics might just be the early signal—a market getting ahead of the monetary cycle shift. 2026 becomes the proving ground for whether BTC can sustain its independence or realigns as liquidity conditions change.

For traders and investors tracking macro flows, this divergence is worth monitoring closely. The interaction between cryptocurrency markets and traditional monetary aggregates continues to reveal how digital assets are carving out their own narrative, even as they remain tethered to broader economic cycles.