#美国贸易赤字扩大 The Battle for the Fed Chair: Pressure Backfires

A sudden turn in mid-January disrupted everyone's expectations—the Department of Justice's investigation into Powell shook the entire financial market. What initially seemed like a power play turned out to be the opposite.

There were rumors that Powell and Trump had a private agreement: Powell would voluntarily step down when his term ended in May, in exchange for the other side stopping their attacks on the Fed's budget plans. It sounded like a well-planned scheme. But once the order was issued, the market's reaction was completely opposite.

Data on Polymarket fluctuated wildly—the probability of Powell leaving before May plummeted from 74% to 45%, and the overall likelihood of departure this year dropped from 85% to 62%. In other words, the chance of him staying increased sharply. On-chain prediction market participants voted with real money, and the conclusion was clear: this pressure might be a waste of effort.

The more painful part came later. In the hawkish camp, Haskett was initially leading, but was overtaken by the more aggressive Kevin Waugh. The candidate Trump wanted did not get the position; instead, an opponent he least wanted to see taking over.

Policy analyst Dan Clifton pointed out sharply: continued pressure might actually force Powell to stay on as an ordinary board member. This power game was lost from the very beginning—Trump lost ground first. The upcoming year's contest is likely to be even more intense.