Estimating the Profitability of Crypto While Waiting for the US Supreme Court's Decision on the Tariff Case

Current Technical Station of Bitcoin and Ethereum

Bitcoin is responding to the market at $96.79K with a positive momentum of +1.96% over the past 24 hours, while Ethereum has reached $3.37K with a 2.24% increase. Although the movements are positive, both assets remain in relatively tight conditions—Bitcoin needs to succeed in the $94,000–$95,000 region to build stronger support, while Ethereum continues to face pressure below the $3,200 threshold. Failure to hold these levels could open the door to deeper consolidation or lower price assessments.

Why the Supreme Court Decision Matters for the Crypto Ecosystem

The case before the highest court involves tariffs imposed during the previous administration, where businesses and states—led by Oregon—filed lawsuits claiming these tariffs were implemented without proper congressional approval. Lower courts have ruled that these tariffs may exceed presidential authority, leading the case to the Supreme Court.

For crypto traders, the upcoming ruling represents a critical macro flashpoint. It does not directly impact blockchain technology or cryptocurrency fundamentals, but the decision will serve as a trigger for broader market sentiment. If the court upholds these tariffs, a risk-off environment could return to global markets, exerting pressure on high-risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. If tariffs are increased, the risk narrative may shift, providing a temporary reprieve for crypto positioning.

Historical Evidence: How Crypto Responds to Macro Stress Events

The 2025 US-China tariff escalation offers a valuable lesson. During that time, Bitcoin rose and fell by 12–15% within a week, while Ethereum slid nearly 20% as traders reduced exposure and fled to safety. Volatility persisted for over a week, amplified by liquidations, declining spot buying pressure, and tighter market liquidity.

The critical insight: crypto does not respond directly to tariffs themselves but to the risk-off environment they create. When macro uncertainty rises while prices are below resistance, volatility tends to increase more than directional clarity. This means that the coming days will focus on managing volatility and tactical positioning rather than generating sustainable directional moves.

How Traders Should Prepare

As the court decision approaches, market participants should focus on two key areas:

First, monitor price action against technical levels. Headlines about the decision can generate initial momentum, but the true market direction will be determined by how Bitcoin and Ethereum hold at critical support and resistance levels. If BTC can stay above $94,000 and ETH above $3,200, recovery rallies may gain steam. Otherwise, a deeper pullback becomes more probable.

Second, manage risk exposure. Instead of making large directional bets before the decision, many professional traders opt for smaller positions and tactical profit-taking during relief rallies. The old adage “buy the rumor, sell the news” applies here—most initial volatility may fade once the market moves into post-decision repricing.

Key Takeaways

Crypto markets remain vulnerable until the macro picture becomes clearer. Bitcoin and Ethereum have momentum, but their ability to stay above key technical levels will be crucial for sustainability. The Supreme Court ruling on tariffs will act as a catalyst, but price follow-through will determine the next trend. While waiting, cautious risk management and focus on technical structure are more practical than relying on headlines. Expect increased volatility throughout the week but no significant directional bias until clarity emerges.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is the crypto market really slow because of tariffs?
Not directly. Tariffs create uncertainty in the broader macro environment, triggering risk reduction among traders. This increases volatility and reduces appetite for high-risk assets like crypto.

How exactly will the Supreme Court decision affect BTC and ETH?
A negative ruling (against tariffs) is likely to induce risk-off sentiment and increase short-term selling pressure. A positive ruling (in favor of tariffs) could provide temporary relief and boost sentiment, but true conviction will only be seen in price action.

When will the market become stable again?
After the decision and the initial volatility passes, the market will tend to settle into the new reality. If prices establish stable support and break out from resistance, more normal trading conditions should return.