The US dollar strengthens against the euro on the wave of mixed labor market data

quiet_lurker · 2026-01-15T14:15:40+00:00

W USA, wages are rising, but job growth is slowing down, creating a mixed picture of the economy. Despite the unemployment rate dropping to 4.4%, the number of new jobs is below forecasts. The Fed may decide to keep interest rates unchanged, waiting for further economic signals.

quiet_lurker

2026-01-15 14:15:40

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Wages in the USA are Growing Faster, but Job Creation Slows Down

The zloty lost value against the dollar on Friday as market participants analyzed the complex picture emerging from the latest data on the US labor market. The EUR/USD pair is heading towards 1.1638, reaching a seven-day downward trend, while the US dollar continues to strengthen its position relative to major currency competitors.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics report revealed that non-farm employment increased by only 50,000 in December — below the forecast of (60,000) and significantly weaker than the 64,000 gain recorded the previous month. Paradoxically, however, wages in the US showed solid growth: the average hourly wage increased by 0.3% compared to the previous month and by 3.8% year-over-year, surpassing both market consensus and November data (3.6%).

At the same time, the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, beating the forecast of 4.5% and the previous figure of 4.6%. This picture is therefore mixed: weaker employment suggests a cooling economy, while wage dynamics and lower unemployment indicate ongoing strength in the local labor market.

Federal Reserve awaits confirmation of the trend

Mixed signals from the labor market reinforce analysts’ belief that the Federal Reserve is most likely to keep interest rates unchanged during the meeting on (January 27-28). While the possibility of gradual easing of monetary policy in the second half of the year is not ruled out, the Fed will currently wait for confirmation whether the slowdown in employment is the beginning of a more sustained trend or merely a temporary rebound.

Investors will now closely monitor upcoming indicators: the early month University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey and upcoming statements from economists at regional Federal Reserve banks. Particularly important will be comments from Thomas Barkin of Richmond and Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis, who may provide additional insights into the economic trajectory and further steps in monetary policy.

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