## Pi Network (PI) Eyes Critical Support as Ascending Triangle Formation Suggests Breakout Potential Amid Token Release

### Current Market Dynamics and Technical Foundation

Pi Network (PI) is navigating through a challenging market environment characterized by both external headwinds and internal structural pressures. With Bitcoin recently correcting from levels near $96.94K and settling into consolidation, the broader crypto market sentiment has turned cautious. PI, currently trading at $0.21 with a -0.73% daily decline, mirrors this broader pullback. Yet beneath this surface weakness lies an intriguing technical pattern—an **ascending triangle formation on the 4-hour timeframe** that warrants closer examination.

The ascending triangle pattern represents a classic bullish consolidation setup characterized by a rising support trendline meeting a horizontal resistance ceiling. For PI, this structure has been forming since mid-December, with each bounce establishing higher lows while meeting persistent resistance in the $0.2129–$0.2160 band. This technical framework becomes particularly significant given the concurrent supply dynamics reshaping the token's price action.

### The Supply Influx Challenge: Context and Absorption Capacity

Pi Network's price trajectory cannot be properly evaluated without addressing the substantial token unlock schedule dominating January 2026. The ecosystem has absorbed a December 2025 unlock of approximately 190 million PI tokens, followed by an even larger release of around 136 million tokens in January. With daily average releases exceeding $4 million in equivalent value spread across the month, January represents the peak unlock pressure period to date.

This supply influx typically functions as a price headwind, introducing continuous selling pressure as recipients and early stakeholders liquidate portions of their holdings. However, the critical insight lies in the market's absorption capacity: PI's ability to sustain current valuations despite this deluge suggests that demand drivers—whether from ecosystem utility, institutional accumulation, or retail FOMO—are offsetting a substantial portion of this bearish pressure.

### Technical Setup: The Ascending Triangle in Focus

The 4-hour chart reveals that PI recently tested resistance at $0.2160 before retreating to approximately $0.2078, where it encountered the ascending trendline. This support zone—specifically the $0.205–$0.208 region—has emerged as the key battleground determining whether the bullish triangle structure will ultimately resolve upward or collapse into a deeper correction.

As long as buyers successfully defend this ascending support trendline, the technical structure remains constructively bullish. Each failed attempt to push lower creates higher lows, gradually compressing the triangle and building energy for a potential breakout. A decisive breach above the $0.2160 resistance, ideally confirmed by a daily close above this level, would represent a completion of the ascending triangle pattern and could serve as a demand catalyst that overrides the ongoing unlock-related selling.

### Breakout Target and Risk-Reward Assessment

Should PI overcome the horizontal resistance at $0.2160 and establish a convincing breakout, measured move analysis of the triangle projects an upside objective near $0.2404. This represents approximately a 15% upside from current levels, assuming a stable macro backdrop and continued institutional interest in the ecosystem.

This price target would effectively neutralize the bearish narrative surrounding the January supply event. Reaching $0.24 would signal that market demand has successfully absorbed not only the $136 million token release but has also created sufficient fresh buying interest to propel prices materially higher.

Conversely, a breakdown below the $0.205 support trendline would suggest that the relentless unlock calendar has finally shifted the supply-demand balance in favor of sellers, likely triggering a sharper corrective phase to lower support levels.

### The Path Forward: Consolidation and Resolution

The immediate outlook hinges on a straightforward technical proposition: Can PI sustain above its ascending support while mounting a fresh challenge to the $0.2160–$0.2180 resistance band? As long as the trendline holds and higher lows continue to form, consolidation remains the baseline scenario with a bullish breakout remaining the higher probability outcome.

The intersection of two competing forces—structural unlock-driven selling and bullish triangle formation—creates a layered technical narrative. While the $136 million token release presents a clear supply headwind, the ascending triangle pattern suggests that demand remains sufficiently robust to prevent a capitulation breakdown.

**Bottom Line:** Pi Network stands at an inflection point where technical structure and fundamental supply dynamics present competing outcomes. A successful defense of the $0.205–$0.208 support zone, combined with a breakout above $0.2160, could validate a 15% rally toward $0.24 and demonstrate that ecosystem adoption metrics are outpacing token unlock calendars. Failure to hold this critical support would confirm that supply pressure has overcome demand, likely resulting in a sharper corrective move.