Altcoin Season Index drops to 26: what does it really mean for investors in 2025

The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant rotation. CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index reached a value of 26 last week, marking a four-point jump from the previous level of 22. This movement represents the largest daily increase recorded since the beginning of January, and market experts consider it a signal far from negligible for those tracking the sector’s evolution.

The systematic role of the index in understanding the market

To fully appreciate the meaning of this increase, it is necessary to understand how the measurement tool works. The Altcoin Season Index systematically compares Bitcoin’s performance with that of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, excluding stablecoins and wrapped tokens from the calculation. This approach provides a clear picture of the relative trend of speculative assets.

The methodology is built on three distinct time frames: the last 30 days, the last 90 days, and the last 365 days. Data are weighted to give greater importance to the performance over 90 days in the final calculation. A cryptocurrency is considered “outperforming” compared to Bitcoin when it shows a percentage gain greater than ( or a loss less than ) in the measured period.

When do we talk about “altcoin season” in the true sense?

According to CoinMarketCap’s official definition, a true altcoin season occurs when the index maintains values above 75 for at least 90 consecutive days. This would mean that 75% of the top 100 altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin over the same period. The current value of 26 remains far from this threshold, although it represents a meaningful move toward the bullish territory.

The historical context: what we have seen in the past

During the 2021 altcoin season, the index maintained values above 75 for several consecutive months, with peaks close to 90 during periods of maximum outperformance. In the bear market that followed, during 2022-2023, the value often fell below 10, reflecting Bitcoin’s relative strength during declines. The current move toward 26 thus represents a significant recovery from those historic lows.

Historical data show that movements similar to those at the start of 2021 preceded significant altcoin rallies, although past performance never guarantees future results. This is why analysts are closely monitoring whether the value will stabilize above 25 in the coming weeks.

The significance for diversified portfolios

A often underestimated aspect is the predictive value of this index for portfolio management. According to a survey by the Digital Asset Management Firm Association published in February 2025, 72% of institutional crypto funds use the Altcoin Season Index as a reference in their rebalancing decisions. When the index remains above 25 for multiple consecutive weeks, many managers systematically increase exposure to altcoins. Conversely, when it falls below 15, they reduce positions.

This approach helps institutions navigate market cycles quantitatively, reducing decisions based on emotion. However, financial advisors warn that the index should never be the sole signal used. Fundamental factors such as project development, actual token utility, and network adoption metrics remain crucial.

Complementary indicators confirm the signal

Bitcoin’s dominance, which measures what percentage of the total crypto market capitalization belongs to Bitcoin, has decreased from 54.1% a month ago to the current 52.3%. This 1.8 percentage point decrease is consistent with the four-point increase of the Altcoin Season Index, demonstrating that different measurement tools are recording the same phenomenon.

Additionally, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has maintained “neutral” values between 45 and 55 throughout March 2025. This indicates that the movement of the Altcoin Season Index is not occurring in a context of speculative euphoria or panic, but in a measured and rational market environment.

On-chain analysis platforms like Glassnode and Santiment reveal that active addresses and transaction counts on major altcoin networks are increasing moderately. This suggests that the index movement is not simply the result of speculative trading but has at least some fundamental support.

Trading volume tells an interesting story

CryptoCompare data show significant changes in volume ratios between Bitcoin and major altcoins. Ethereum’s daily trading volume reached 68% of Bitcoin’s in February 2025, up from 62% in December. At the same time, Solana and Cardano saw their volume ratios increase by approximately 15% and 8%, respectively. These volume shifts often precede changes in price performance ratios, providing an explanation for the recent movement of the index.

How to properly use this tool

The Altcoin Season Index is an important reference point in the crypto landscape but is not an autonomous trading signal. Investors should integrate it into a broader strategy that includes fundamental analysis, risk assessment, and portfolio planning. The index is particularly useful for understanding which phase of the market cycle we are in, not for predicting the performance of individual assets.

It is important to remember that the index measures relative performance, not absolute price movements. Altcoins could technically decrease in value but still outperform Bitcoin if their decline is less than that of the main asset.

What to expect in the coming weeks

The move from 22 to 26 represents the most significant jump in a single day since the beginning of January. The next element to monitor will be whether this value manages to stabilize and further progress, or if it returns to previous levels. Historically, sustained growth above 25 has preceded phases of altcoin outperformance in the broader market.

However, to reach a true “altcoin season,” the index would need to nearly triple its current value, reaching the threshold of 75 and maintaining it over time. At the moment, what we observe is a promising signal of market diversification, not yet a confirmation of a complete regime change.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1: How does CoinMarketCap calculate the Altcoin Season Index?
The system monitors the percentage of the top 100 cryptocurrencies (excluding stablecoins and wrapped tokens) that have outperformed Bitcoin over three periods: the last 30, 90, and 365 days. The final calculation places greater emphasis on the performance over 90 days.

Q2: What is the level that defines a true altcoin season?
An “altcoin season” officially begins when the index maintains a value above 75 for at least 90 consecutive days, indicating that 75% of the top altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin.

Q3: Is a value of 26 really significant?
Yes, it represents a notable movement, especially after weeks of stability between 20 and 22. However, it remains well below the 75 threshold that would define a true altcoin season.

Q4: If the index rises, do all altcoins increase in price?
No. The index measures relative performance, not absolute prices. Altcoins could decrease in value but still outperform Bitcoin if their decline is less.

Q5: Should retail investors use this index as a trading signal?
No. The index is a contextual tool among many. It should be combined with fundamental analysis, project evaluation, and risk management strategies, never used as the sole entry or exit signal.