Recently, the market has been quite interesting. BTC just touched the key resistance level of 98,000, and then macro news came out to stir things up—this timing is incredibly precise. After spending a long time in the circle, you realize that such news is often not coincidental; big funds frequently use macro factors as emotional tools to harvest their chips. Instead of panicking, it's better to sit back with a cup of tea and watch slowly. My own strategy was to fully close all long positions early in the session; now I’m just an observer.

My core view is straightforward: the current market at high levels is in a sensitive zone. Taking profits on longs doesn’t mean being bearish; rather, it’s a sign of respecting the risk. Many people always want to earn that last point, but end up giving back all their previous gains—that’s a classic greedy mindset. The essence of the crypto market is survival; making money only comes after you stay alive. Compared to chasing quick profits, risk management is a hundred times more important.

Based on the market and macro background, BTC is likely to follow two main scenarios, each requiring preparation:

**Scenario One: Fake breakout at high levels to lure longs, followed by a second rebound and then resistance.** First, test the 98,000-99,000 range, possibly briefly touching the 100,000 mark. This creates a false breakout illusion to attract follow-up traders. But without volume support, this "break" is essentially a distribution by the main players. After the fake breakout, expect a quick pullback to support levels around 96,000-97,000. There may be a weak rebound afterward, but its strength will be noticeably diminished. Once a top formation appears, a proper correction will begin. During this phase, don’t chase longs—FOMO will only cause you to catch the last falling knife.

**Scenario Two: Gradual upward movement with oscillation and breakout.** If institutional funds continue to build positions, the market may move in a slow upward trend, gradually digesting the pressure at 98,000 and eventually breaking through to new highs. This kind of movement requires volume support; if volume and price don’t match, a reversal is likely.

No matter which scenario unfolds, the key is to manage risk well. At high levels, you should adopt high-level strategies; greed is the biggest enemy in crypto trading.