January 15th, 10:00 PM, continue to monitor the BTC/USDT trend.

**Bullish structure intact, but patience is needed**

The price has been consolidating below 97777 for several hours, seemingly no progress at first glance. But the key point is— the daily and 4-hour bullish trend frameworks have not been broken. This is precisely the most testing period for psychology. The directional judgment remains bullish, just waiting for the signal that indicates the end of consolidation in the short term.

From a technical perspective. The daily ADX surged to 57.5, indicating a strong trending bullish characteristic, with +DI (32.2) far exceeding -DI (8.7), showing a significant disparity between bulls and bears. On the capital side, the situation is also good—OBV continues to flow in, with a 5.9% increase, and the CMF reaching 0.210 indicating buying dominance. This suggests that although the price is stagnant, there is support below.

But be aware of a risk signal here: RSI has already surged to 77.1, and MFI reached 74, both indicators entering overbought territory. In other words, the rally has accumulated quite a bit of profit-taking. The 4-hour level is even more aggressive—ADX at 47.8, OBV inflow at 25.8%, CMF at 0.238, but MFI has jumped to 85, indicating extreme overbought conditions. This is a short-term warning area. The 1-hour chart has already entered consolidation, with ADX at 24.3, and bulls and bears are evenly matched, with no clear direction.

Overall, the multi-timeframe consistency score reaches 80%, indicating a clear bullish trend, but execution details need to be cautious.

**The truth about liquidity: Exchange divergence**

Cross-exchange analysis is quite interesting. The overall buy-side proportion is 55.7%, slightly leading, but there is significant divergence—buy orders are concentrated on certain major exchanges like OKX, Bybit, Gate, while some compliant platforms and Kraken have more sell orders. This divergence reminds us that data from a single exchange can produce false divergences. The full network aggregated data should be the basis. Currently, the overall liquidity status is good, suitable for trading, but be cautious of abnormal orders on individual exchanges that may interfere with short-term prices.

**Price position and capital layout**

The current price is at the upper edge of the key zone $95808-$96915. The daily VWAP is deviated at -8.08%, meaning the price is still below the daily average cost, leaving room for further upside in the medium to long term. The market sentiment index is 61, indicating a somewhat hot but not extremely greedy state. Large orders show 100% buy dominance, with a net inflow of over $620,000—big funds are quietly positioning. Combining ICT analysis, the current period is during the New York Killzone, with extremely high liquidity, making it a critical window to observe the direction.

**Specific operational ideas**

Look for low-risk long opportunities on pullbacks. The first support levels are at $95808 (Pivot S1) and $95672 (1-hour MA50). If the price continues to decline, strong support is at $94131. The ideal entry zone is locked between $95800-$96200. Set stop-loss below $94100.

For targets, first aim at $97956 (Pivot R1), then break through to $99014 (R2), with a more ambitious target around $101000. Since the 4-hour MFI is already extremely overbought, keep positions conservative—initially control at 15%. If the price pulls back to key supports and confirms bullish continuation, increase to 20%.

**Final note**

The current price is in the mid-to-high position relative to multiple timeframes, neither the worst nor the best position. After extreme consolidation, markets often experience large fluctuations. It’s a test of patience and discipline, not prediction. If buy orders can support the daily and 4-hour bullish structures, there is actually room for an upward breakout. The key is to wait for clearer signals.

⚠️ Risk warning: The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Please make decisions cautiously according to your own risk tolerance.