Bitcoin has entered the institutional era: ETF holdings surpass 12%, and the price is expected to break through $1.5 million by 2030.

【BlockBeats】The investment logic of Bitcoin is quietly shifting. In the past, investors were more concerned with “whether to trust Bitcoin,” but now the question has become “what proportion should I allocate” and “which tools to use for participation”—this change in mindset actually marks a key turning point.

The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, along with the rapid adoption of corporate treasury strategies, has completely bridged Bitcoin’s transition from a niche asset to a mainstream financial instrument. Data speaks volumes: ETFs and digital asset treasuries together now hold approximately 12% of the total supply of Bitcoin. At first glance, this number may not seem particularly large, but it exceeds most people’s expectations, and this is just the beginning.

The continuous influx of institutional funds is changing Bitcoin’s character. As volatility gradually converges and retracement amplitudes become milder, Bitcoin is evolving from a “risk asset” to a “portfolio asset.” What does this mean? It means that investors with lower risk tolerance are starting to accept Bitcoin as well.

Regarding future trends, institutional investors are generally optimistic. According to published valuation models, by 2030, the target prices for Bitcoin under different scenarios are approximately: $300,000 in a bear market, about $710,000 in a baseline scenario, and around $1,500,000 in a bull market. Driven by the dual narratives of “digital gold” and continuous institutional buying, the range of $300,000 to $1,500,000 is widely regarded as a reasonable long-term goal.

In 2025 and 2026, the ongoing absorption by ETFs and corporate treasuries will continue to be the main factors influencing prices. The market is entering a more mature, more institutionalized, and less volatile new phase.