Bitcoin's transition from a faith asset to a portfolio asset, Ark predicts it will reach at least $300,000 by 2030.

Ark Invest’s latest insights have reshaped the understanding of Bitcoin’s development stages. This well-known investment firm believes that the driving logic behind Bitcoin is undergoing a fundamental shift: it is no longer primarily dependent on whether investors believe in the asset, but more on how much exposure they are willing to allocate. What is behind this shift, and what does it imply?

The Institutionalization Critical Point Has Arrived

From Faith-Driven to Allocation-Driven

Ark Invest analyst David Puell touches on a key turning point. In its early days, Bitcoin was purely a faith asset, with prices mainly determined by participants’ recognition of its value. But now, the situation is different.

With the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 and the rapid development of digital asset treasury strategies, Bitcoin has crossed an important threshold. Data best illustrates the point:

• ETFs and digital asset treasuries together hold about 12% of the total Bitcoin supply
• This proportion far exceeds previous market expectations
• It has become one of the main drivers influencing price trends by 2025
• This trend may continue into 2026

What does this mean? It indicates that institutional funds have become the main participants in the Bitcoin market, rather than fringe players. When institutions decide to allocate to Bitcoin, they are not expressing faith but making asset allocation decisions. This is a completely different logic.

The Deep Meaning of Volatility Decline

Ark observes that as the amount of Bitcoin absorbed by ETFs and corporate treasuries exceeds expectations, the market is entering a more institutionalized phase with lower volatility.

This may seem like a technical observation, but it is actually very significant. A decline in volatility means:

• Price fluctuations narrow, reducing retracement risks
• Investors with lower risk appetite may start participating
• Bitcoin is evolving from a “high-risk, high-reward” asset to a “medium-risk, long-term store of value” asset
• This will attract more institutions and conservative investors

In other words, a decrease in volatility could actually expand Bitcoin’s investor base, creating a positive feedback loop.

Three Scenarios for Long-Term Value Judgment

Ark’s long-term view of Bitcoin remains unchanged, but it has become more explicit. Based on its published valuation models:

This framework is quite interesting. Even in the most conservative bear market scenario, Ark expects Bitcoin to reach at least $300,000 by 2030. Currently, BTC is around $97,048, which means:

• Bear scenario: approximately 209% increase in about 4 years
• Base case: approximately 631% increase in about 4 years
• Bull scenario: approximately 1446% increase in about 4 years

Ark states that these predictions are mainly driven by the “digital gold” narrative and institutional adoption. In other words, long-term prices depend on two factors: first, the recognition of Bitcoin as a store of value; second, how many institutions are willing to include it in their asset allocations.

The Logical Basis of the Predictions

It is important to note that Ark’s forecasts are not made out of thin air. They are based on several core assumptions:

• Bitcoin’s supply is fixed, and scarcity guarantees a long-term value foundation
• The adoption rate among institutions continues to rise, supported by real-world developments (ETFs, treasury strategies)
• In an inflationary environment, the appeal of digital gold persists
• In global asset allocation, Bitcoin’s share gradually increases from a very low base

These assumptions currently seem reasonable, but the extent to which they are realized will determine which scenario ultimately unfolds.

Observations and Reflections

From Ark’s analysis, several noteworthy trends emerge:

Institutionalization is an irreversible direction. Once ETFs and treasury strategies prove feasible, more institutions will follow. This is not short-term speculation but a long-term structural change.

Volatility decline is a double-edged sword. In the short term, lower volatility may cause thrill-seeking traders to lose interest, but in the long term, it broadens Bitcoin’s investor base and supports stable price growth.

The key variable in price prediction is adoption speed. The three scenarios Ark presents essentially reflect different assumptions about the pace of institutional adoption. The faster the adoption, the higher the price.

Summary

Bitcoin is undergoing an important phase transition. From a purely faith-based asset to an institutional allocation asset, this represents a more mature and stable development trajectory. Ark’s 2030 forecast framework is clear, with even the most conservative scenario projecting $300,000, demonstrating confidence in the long-term trend.

However, it is important to remember that forecasts are just forecasts. Actual outcomes depend on the progress of institutional adoption, macroeconomic conditions, policy attitudes, and other variables. From current trends, the institutionalization process has already begun, but how far it will go remains to be seen.