The recent hot topic in the crypto circle is still "How will the market move," but the real hidden danger has been brewing for a while—The U.S. Supreme Court is about to rule on Trump's global tariff policy. On the surface, this seems like a policy issue, but the actual impact could be much more severe than market expectations.

Let's start with the numbers: The tariff system implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act contributes approximately $30 billion to the U.S. treasury each month, amounting to nearly $350 billion annually. This revenue is crucial to the U.S. budget. However, the current market consensus is that this might be overblown—the probability of the Supreme Court ruling the policy illegal has been priced in at 76%.

If the ruling is unfavorable, the consequences could cascade like dominoes. First, fiscal revenue would evaporate directly, creating a $350 billion black hole that needs to be filled. Plus, there could be potential retroactive refunds, with the total gap possibly reaching the trillion-dollar level—an existential blow to any country's finances.

What can the Treasury do next? It can only issue debt aggressively. JPMorgan's analysis shows that if the Treasury increases bond issuance, long-term U.S. Treasury yields will rise significantly, and the bond curve will become steeper. What does this mean? Market liquidity will be drained.

Some say Trump has alternative options, such as using Section 122 or the 301 investigation as substitutes. Sounds good, but these tools have inherent limitations—Section 122's maximum tax rate is only 15%, which can't cover the current gap; the 301 investigation process is too lengthy for quick emergency responses.

Market misjudgments are also worth cautioning. Many believe that canceling tariffs could be a positive, as corporate costs would decrease. But this logic ignores a core fact: this liquidity isn't just shifting; it’s truly disappearing. When U.S. Treasury yields soar, funds will withdraw en masse from other asset classes, including cryptocurrencies. This isn't a simple "move from A to B," but a systemic market contraction.