2026-01-15 14:27:39

High Yield Credit Cycle: When Bears Go Extinct

The playbook for shorting US credit markets isn't complicated—it's about timing. Early 2025 presented that exact window. February brought the setup, April closed it out. What's worth noting: the market's character changed afterward.

Tourists flooded in talking recession by spring. But here's the thing—when everyone's suddenly bearish on the broader economy, the high yield bond market had already rotated. Credit spreads tightened, demand rebounded, and the bears that dominated earlier in the year got systematically flushed out.

This pattern repeats: the real money moves when cycles turn, not when everyone agrees on the story. The recession chatter came late. The credit move came first.

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GateUser-afe07a92

· 5h ago

It's that same narrative of "smart money leaving early" again, hearing it so much my ears are getting calloused. Sounds nice, but in reality, it's just big players harvesting the little guys and pretending to be gurus, right?

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PrivateKeyParanoia

· 5h ago

It's the same timing theory again. It sounds good, but how many people are really bottom-fishing? If the April wave was truly so obvious, who would still be at a loss?

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WalletDivorcer

· 5h ago

It's the same old story of the bears being slaughtered, every time... the market never waits for you to react before it shifts.

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GasFeePhobia

· 5h ago

It's the same story of "smart people have already run away," huh? It sounds simple, but how many actually hit the right rhythm? --- The opportunity windows in February and April... sound like armchair generals after the fact. Who really dared to go all-in short back then? --- The rotation in the high-yield bond market is indeed absolute. Many are still shouting recession, but the market has already turned around. --- So it's that old saying again: the market always leads public opinion. Beginners always chase after the story. --- That's why retail investors can never make money; their reactions are always a beat late. --- If the timing is right, you can make a killing. If the timing is wrong, even the best strategy is useless. Easy to say.

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MelonField

· 5h ago

Here we go again. The supposed recession, but it turns out the shorts were the ones being liquidated. I knew it. --- That April wave was really fierce. Watching a bunch of people get squeezed out of their positions was a bit satisfying, but mostly it’s terrifying upon reflection. --- Funds always move faster than stories. I just want to know where the next turning point is. --- Wait, does this mean I can still chase now, or is it already time to exit? --- Human nature is really like this. When everyone says there’s a recession, the market actually moves in the opposite direction. It’s all about expectations. --- Is April’s performance considered a wrap-up? So what now, should I buy or sell high-yield bonds? --- Once again, I got caught by high-interest debt. Lucky this time I didn’t miss the boat.

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