By February 2026, Bitcoin is likely to follow a pattern of initial rise followed by stabilization. The key focus now is whether it can break through the resistance level of $98,000-$100,000—once successfully broken, it is expected to accelerate towards the target range of $104,000-$110,000.

From several perspectives, first is on-chain capital. After hitting the bottom on December 24, it has started to strengthen. Entering January and February, liquidity will gradually recover, and the bullish sentiment is relatively dominant in the short term.

On the technical side, $98,000-$100,000 is a critical resistance; breaking through will accelerate the upward momentum. The $90,000 level below provides important support; once lost, it could trigger a pullback.

On the macro front, there are several positive factors—continued expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and a weakening dollar are favorable for Bitcoin. However, it is also important to note that policy and regulatory uncertainties may periodically cause volatility.

Risks should be kept in mind: institutions may take profits after a phase of gains, and the historical performance during the third halving cycle tends to be weaker, so caution is advised for potential sharp rises followed by pullbacks.