The latest US weekly initial jobless claims data just came out—198,000, directly breaking market expectations (215,000). This number seems ordinary, but its implications are not simple.

What does such a resilient labor market indicate? To put it plainly, the economy isn't as fragile as it seems. When unemployment claims are lower than expected, investors' nerves relax, and confidence in the economy noticeably rebounds. Once confidence returns, funds tend to flow into risk assets, making Bitcoin naturally a key focus.

There's another more critical perspective—the Federal Reserve's plans. Strong employment data theoretically leaves room for rate hikes, but there's a subtlety: the market is currently betting on the Fed entering a rate cut cycle. In other words, no matter how good the employment data looks, the market isn't likely to think too much about rate hikes. On the contrary, expectations of rate cuts are always a long-term positive for risk assets like Bitcoin.

Don't forget the market sentiment. Good economic data is like a shot of adrenaline, quickly improving market atmosphere, attracting capital inflows, and pushing up crypto prices. From this perspective, lower-than-expected initial jobless claims are a good signal.

However, to be honest, whether this single data point can directly influence Bitcoin's trajectory depends on subsequent macroeconomic performance. Relying solely on this is not enough.