#数字资产市场动态 US employment data suddenly shifts, and this time it might really be different

Thursday's data surprised the market: initial unemployment claims were 198,000, directly breaking through the expected 215,000. Even more surprisingly, the year-over-year decrease was 9,000, hitting a new low since November last year.

The four-week moving average dropped to 205,000 — a level not seen in two years.

**But there's a trap to be aware of**

Don't rush to celebrate. Analysts are sounding the alarm: seasonal adjustments during the holiday season can cause significant distortions, and this data may contain a lot of noise. You see, news of layoffs at big companies keeps coming, but these haven't translated into a nationwide unemployment surge — which is quite peculiar in itself.

What is the truth? The labor market is currently stuck at a delicate balance: companies aren't cutting jobs much, but they've also largely stopped hiring on a large scale. This "low layoffs, low hiring" pattern will continue to influence policy directions into 2026, and we need to keep watching.

**The key remains the unemployment rate**

The 4.6% threshold continues to be the core reference for macro allocation. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions in 2026 will largely depend on whether this number continues to decline. The stronger the resilience of the labor market, the more justified they are in maintaining a cautious stance.