The average range is maintained, USD is losing ground – analysts expect new fluctuations

LiquidatedNotStirred · 2026-01-15T14:32:08+00:00

The U.S. dollar shows ongoing instability within a range established since June 2025. Analysts predict calm trading ahead, with the Federal Reserve signaling potential monetary policy adjustments as employment risks rise. FOMC protocols suggest a consensus for easing rates amid anticipated inflation decline, while fiscal pressures may keep the dollar in a protective position.

LiquidatedNotStirred

2026-01-15 14:32:08

Abstract generation in progress

The US dollar continues to demonstrate volatility, remaining within a range established since June 2025. Yesterday’s USD rally found no support, and currently BBH FX analysts forecast a calm trading session without significant catalysts today.

The Central Bank prepares further steps: what FOMC members say

Representatives of the Federal Reserve System continue to signal readiness for new monetary policy adjustments. Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari emphasized that the current policy is near neutral but warned of potential risks in the labor market. In his view, unemployment could rise from current levels, creating room for caution in decision-making.

Anna Paulson, head of the Philadelphia Fed, confirmed in her latest note that a moderate rate cut for federal funds is quite justified amid expectations of inflation decreasing over the year. At the same time, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin also voices his opinion on this matter, although without a voting right in the decision-making process.

FOMC minutes signal consensus

The minutes of the December 9-10 FOMC meeting clearly show that most participants lean toward the view that further easing of monetary policy is appropriate. The market already discounts a 50 basis point rate cut over the next year based on federal funds futures behavior. Experts believe that the FOMC will not need many arguments to implement this scenario if disinflation trends continue.

Fiscal pressure and prospects of the middle range

BBH FX analysts expect 2026 to be marked by increased fiscal tensions in global markets. In this context, the USD is likely to remain in a defensive position as the foreign exchange market shifts focus from interest rate differentials to fiscal trust in countries. This middle range, in which the dollar is traded, may persist for a longer period until new macroeconomic impulses emerge.

A more detailed analysis of this topic will be presented in the quarterly report and online seminar during the month.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.