AI investing had a pretty straightforward run through 2025—at least that's what Baird's strategist Ted Mortonson is saying. But here's the thing: if you're thinking 2026 will be more of the same, think again.

The consensus seems to be shifting toward expecting much choppier waters ahead. Volatility is likely to pick up as we move deeper into the year. Whether that's from macro headwinds, shifting capital flows, or just the natural rhythm of tech-driven markets is still up for debate. But one thing's becoming clear—the smooth sailing for AI-focused positions might not last.

Investors are starting to price in the idea that this acceleration phase could hit some bumps. The real question is whether the underlying fundamentals stay strong enough to weather the noise, or if we're looking at a genuine pullback in momentum.