Bitcoin in 2026: How the Bull Run Was Delayed Due to Macroeconomic Shifts

The Paradox of Liquidity and Bitcoin

A mysterious thing has happened in the crypto market. As the global M2 money supply continues to grow and liquidity increases worldwide, Bitcoin has fallen by 40% and dropped below $100,000. This is contrary to everything investors have learned over the past year. Usually, BTC follows global financial conditions—when there’s money in the system, funds flow into Bitcoin as well.

But this cycle is different. Crypto analyst Nathan Sloan proposes a theory that goes deeper. The bull market hasn’t failed; let’s say it has just stalled. The entire landscape has changed because of how governments and central banks are responding to inflation and debt.

Why the Crypto Locomotive Is Stalled

The US government is on the edge of a fiscal cliff. Debt is growing rapidly, and interest payments are becoming even larger. To refinance debt more cheaply, lower rates are needed. However, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell remains committed to a higher rate environment to control inflation.

This situation has prevented the liquidity injections that should be happening quickly. Where cheap money should be arriving, it’s just waiting on the sidelines. Instead of providing stimulus, the government is focused on paying higher interest. This directly affects the timing of the crypto boom.

The 5-Year Cycle Theory and the New Timeline

A well-known macro analyst, Raoul Pal, has proposed a new framework. The traditional 4-year cycle of Bitcoin and crypto no longer fits current conditions. The cycle has extended to 5 years, including an elongation of the Fed’s policy timeline.

The implication is direct: the peak expected in 2025 will shift to 2026 or later. This doesn’t mean there won’t be a bull market—there still will be. But its runway has become longer. That’s why there’s no “crypto winter” this year; what we see is tightening before expansion.

Short-term Pain and Long-term Opportunity

A deeper decline may occur before recovery. This was seen in 2019 when the Federal Reserve ended its rate-hiking cycle. Even after pivoting to rate cuts, Bitcoin fell for another six months before surging. Liquidity takes time to show in the markets.

If this pattern repeats, BTC could drop another 50% from current levels before reaching a true bottom. But once the Fed starts lowering rates and money begins flowing into risk assets, the rally could be very strong. This is the “delayed mega-boom” being discussed.

The Role of Governments in the Next Quarter

The new Federal Reserve chair is expected to adjust policy in a more dovish direction. This change will trigger the next wave of liquidity. Governments, on their part, should make fiscal decisions aligned with economic realities.

Q1 data will provide clarity. If liquidity dynamics and government policies truly support the delayed bull run, the bull market cycle hasn’t really failed—it’s just been postponed. Bitcoin and altcoins are waiting on the sidelines for a signal.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Bitcoin Price in 2026: It could surpass $200,000 if the liquidity cycle and government fiscal policy align in a crypto-friendly direction. The timeframe is extended due to macroeconomic dynamics.

Main Risks: Global recession, stricter crypto regulation, sustained liquidity contraction, or breakdown of technical support levels could all hinder the bull run.

Long-term Outlook for Bitcoin: Projections for 2030 range from $380,000 to $900,000, supported by fixed supply, institutional adoption, and currency debasement pressures.

Bitcoin as an Inflation Hedge: In the long run, the fixed supply and scarcity mechanics reinforce BTC’s role as protection against inflation, especially in an environment of currency devaluation.