Ethereum technical dilemma and capital game: spot outflows suggest market concerns

Spot Withdrawal Signals Continue to Apply Pressure

Ethereum’s latest price hovers around $3.37K, with a recent gain of +0.83%. However, behind this mild upward momentum lies deep-seated concerns about capital flows. On January 8th, net spot outflows reached $46.2 million. This is not an isolated event—since the December lows, every price rally has been accompanied by capital outflows, rather than the normal accumulation during pullbacks.

This abnormal pattern of capital movement warrants vigilance. Traditionally, healthy upward trends are driven by inflows of spot funds, but ETH’s current performance is the opposite—sellers are taking advantage of rebound windows during strong phases, weakening the sustainability and credibility of the rally.

Multiple Technical Resistance Layers Form a Barrier Zone

The daily chart shows ETH facing multiple levels of resistance. The 20-day EMA is around $3,078, the 50-day EMA about $3,128, the 100-day EMA near $3,302, and the 200-day EMA close to $3,349. These four moving averages form a dense resistance zone above the price. Since mid-December, ETH has tested this area multiple times, each attempt ending in failure, confirming that the market remains in a correction phase rather than a reversal.

The Bollinger Bands also reinforce the consolidation signal. The price is compressed within the lower half of the Bollinger Bands, indicating a sideways trend rather than expansion, with persistent supply pressure. On shorter timeframes, the 30-minute candlestick chart shows a clear descending channel, with lower highs and a gradually declining upper boundary, indicating ongoing selling pressure.

The RSI hovers below 45, showing weak buying momentum; MACD, despite a slight rebound in the histogram, remains negative. Each rebound near the channel resistance fails to sustain, further confirming the dominance of the bears.

Institutional Signals vs. Market Reality

It is noteworthy that positive institutional signals contrast sharply with the sluggish spot market. On January 7th, Morgan Stanley filed for an Ethereum trust with the SEC, following Bitcoin and Solana, indicating growing recognition of ETH as an income-generating asset (especially staking yields) by traditional finance.

Meanwhile, Bitmine is seeking shareholder approval to significantly expand its holdings for a large-scale ETH acquisition. The company currently holds 4.14 million ETH (worth about $13.3 billion) and plans to launch the MAVAN validator network in 2026, targeting an annual staking income of $374 million.

These long-term narratives indeed strengthen ETH’s fundamental outlook, but they have yet to translate into immediate spot buying pressure.

Scaling Upgrades and EVM Evaluation Risks Coexist

Ethereum’s December launch of the Fusaka upgrade introduced the PeerDAS mechanism, greatly improving Layer-2 data processing efficiency. Preliminary data shows transaction fees on major rollups have decreased significantly, enhancing user economic benefits.

However, debates over the scaling roadmap continue. Critics point out that the hardware costs required for advanced ZK-EVM implementations are rising, and from an EVM evaluation perspective, there is a long-term risk of centralization in the validation network—this potential hidden risk, while not directly impacting current prices, has become an important part of investor narratives.

Clear Bull-Bear Divergence

Ethereum is currently at a crossroads between improving fundamentals and short-term structural weakness:

Bull Scenario: If the price clearly holds above $3,350, accompanied by increased trading volume and a shift to positive net spot flows, it would signal a trend reversal, potentially reopening the upward space toward $3,600.

Bear Scenario: If $3,000 support is broken, ETH will likely remain weak and could test the $2,800 support zone.

Until the price effectively breaks through the moving average resistance zone and spot capital flows turn positive, ETH will remain in a consolidation phase. Institutional interest is rising, but the technical charts still need time to develop.