Canadian employment data for December: USD/CAD forecast and key figures

Fren_Not_Food · 2026-01-15T14:46:12+00:00

The upcoming Canadian labor market report is expected to show a decline in job positions, potentially weakening the Canadian dollar. Focus will also be on wage growth, which impacts inflation risks. The USD/CAD pair shows positive trends, with key Fibonacci levels to watch.

Fren_Not_Food

2026-01-15 14:46:12

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When to Expect the Report Release and What It Means for the Currency Market

Statistics Canada will publish key labor market indicators for December today at 13:30 GMT. Analysts forecast a reduction of 5,000 jobs following a positive November with 53,600 new positions. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6.6% from the previous 6.5%, signaling a slowdown in the employment sector.

Such a cooling in the labor market could weaken the Canadian dollar, as it reinforces expectations of a possible rate cut by the Bank of Canada. At the last two BoC meetings, the benchmark rate was held at 2.25%, emphasizing that this level provides optimal conditions for controlling inflation at the target 2%.

Wages and Their Role in Central Bank Decision-Making

Alongside key employment data, the market will focus on the average hourly wage indicator. This metric is critical for assessing wage pressure and inflation risks. In November, annual wage growth was 4%, remaining an important factor in analyzing inflation trends.

Technical Forecast for USD/CAD: From Current Levels to Potential Targets

The USD/CAD pair shows positive momentum, trading in an upward corridor for the second consecutive week. On Friday, it approached 1.3871 ahead of the release of US Nonfarm Payrolls data.

Indicators and Levels:

The 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) has risen to 1.3793, and the pair is trading above this level
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 60, indicating positive momentum without overbought signs

Fibonacci Retracement in Traders’ Focus: From a high of 1.4142 to a low of 1.3646, the pair reached the 50% Fibonacci correction level at 1.3894. If the daily candle closes above this level, the next target is the 61.8% correction level at 1.3952.

If the pair fails to break above 1.3894, a bullish scenario may weaken, opening the way for a return to the 23.6% Fibonacci correction at 1.3763.

(This technical analysis includes insights obtained through AI tools.)

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