The upward logic of the three coins is actually completely different, and this is the root of the problem.

BTC has long since upgraded to a macro asset. Institutional allocation, ETF inflows, store of value properties—its price movements follow market consensus and macroeconomic conditions, making it relatively controllable. ETH is backed by the entire ecosystem, with over 1,400 protocols and $73 billion in locked assets. DeFi, NFTs, and other applications are truly playing a role, with sustained demand supported by fundamentals.

But Dogecoin is different. Simply put, it’s a Meme coin, with no technological innovation and no practical application. It relies entirely on community enthusiasm and social media hype. Price fluctuations are driven purely by sentiment.

Why are the ups and downs not synchronized? Three points make this clear. First, the driving forces behind the rises are not on the same wavelength—BTC and ETH are driven by institutional allocation and ecosystem development, rising steadily and maintaining support; Dogecoin relies solely on emotional pulses, such as Elon Musk’s sudden comments or trending events that ignite interest, but this momentum is fleeting. A common scenario is BTC hitting new highs, while Dogecoin only slightly follows suit or even remains sideways. Second is resilience to declines. During market corrections, institutional funds provide a buffer for BTC and ETH, limiting the decline; Dogecoin lacks a fundamental moat, and early whales see opportunities to dump, while retail investors panic sell, often resulting in a much larger drop than mainstream coins. Third is the capital rotation logic—bull market profits are quickly moved from BTC and ETH into Dogecoin for short-term gains, but once the market starts to fluctuate, this capital immediately flows back into mainstream coins or stablecoins, leaving Dogecoin with the fate of "slow to rise, quick to fall."

Another key variable: Elon Musk’s influence is waning. In the past, Dogecoin’s price was almost tied to him, but in recent years, this effect has significantly diminished. Even when Tesla briefly accepted Dogecoin payments or X platform changed related branding, the rebound was only about 30%, far less exaggerated than before. What does this indicate? It shows that relying solely on one person’s endorsement can no longer sustain the price.