Still plotting the "peak 1.5 years after halving" curve on the candlestick chart? Maybe it's time to look at it from a different perspective.

According to the latest research from multiple institutions, the traditional four-year cycle narrative is being marginalized by the market. Currently, Bitcoin's bull market performance shows significant differences from historical cycles—this rally has lasted over 3 years, but the year-over-year increase is only about 240%, far less violent than previous cycles, which often exceeded 1000%.

Regarding the future trend, market opinions are diverging. Some analysts believe Bitcoin may have completed the current cycle near USD and will enter a correction phase in 2026. However, on the other hand, institutional capital is preparing for a completely different script—expecting Bitcoin to potentially break previous highs in the first half of 2026, ushering in a new phase led by institutions.

This seeming contradiction actually reflects a fundamental change in market structure.

**The institutionalization process has quietly changed the rules of the game**

Global crypto ETPs have seen a net inflow of about $87 billion, but this is just the beginning. Currently, the proportion of crypto assets in U.S. trust wealth is less than 0.5%. Once this ratio gradually rises to 1%, 2%, you will see Bitcoin continue to rise without retail investors participating wildly—this is not a frenzy, but a silent increase driven by institutional allocation.

Key changes are already embedded in on-chain data. The entry of institutional funds has altered the distribution of market liquidity and reshaped the price discovery mechanism. The divergence between retail and institutional perspectives marks the transition of the crypto market from a purely speculative phase to an asset allocation phase.