A recent prediction has caused a market frenzy: Powell may stay in the Federal Reserve position until 2028. Once this news broke, the entire market's bets were instantly overturned.

The speed of the data change is astonishing. The probability of leaving office before the end of May dropped from 74% to 45%, and the chance of leaving before the end of the year plummeted from 85% to 62%. This is not just analyst speculation but actual bets placed on exchanges and futures markets. The market speaks through actions, always the most honest.

The succession situation has also been completely reshuffled. Previously, the most popular candidate, Trump ally Haskett, was about to be overtaken by former Fed Governor Waller. Behind this subtle shift may lie the breakdown of some "underlying agreements." Who can say for sure?

Powell's move is quite interesting. He holds the card "eligible until 2028" but remains silent and noncommittal about his future. Various investigations targeting him have instead become an advantage, reinforcing the market’s confidence in the Fed’s independence. It’s like the more someone stays silent, the more anxious their opponents become.

The underlying logic is quite clear: between political noise and professional stability, capital ultimately chooses the latter. A predictable leader is always more valuable than a political show full of uncertainties.

What does this mean for the crypto market and the entire financial ecosystem?

If Powell truly stays, the pace of rate cuts will no longer be dictated by political winds but by data. The trajectory will be more stable and cautious, avoiding sudden policy reversals. It may sound less aggressive, but the market is not afraid of a lack of stimulation; it fears chaos. Predictable easing is always more reassuring than sudden crashes.

The easing cycle may be extended, but at least the direction is clear. In uncertain times, certainty itself becomes a scarce asset.

Ultimately, when political calculations meet market laws, the winner is often the latter. This central bank drama, which affects global capital nerves, has only just entered its climax.