2026-01-15 19:33:27

Predictions on Polymarket regarding US military actions against Iran have experienced a significant pullback. Previously, the market widely expected this event to occur in the short term, but as time passed, the expectation failed to materialize, and traders began reassessing the risks. The latest data shows that the odds of related contracts have rapidly declined, with short-term bearish positions under noticeable pressure. Although many participants still see the possibility of the event happening, recent trading activity has cooled significantly, reflecting a re-pricing of the market’s short-term trigger probability. This volatility in the prediction market also mirrors real-time changes in the pricing of geopolitical risk assets.

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DegenWhisperer

· 14h ago

It's the same old story, the prediction market is always just a game to harvest retail investors.

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GasWastingMaximalist

· 01-15 20:02

It's the same story again. The market hasn't moved yet, and the prediction has already collapsed. It's so satisfying to be bearish, just waiting to count the money.

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ApeWithNoFear

· 01-15 19:58

Haha, it's the same old trick. Every time they say they will hit, but what happens? The market hits itself in the face. --- The missed expectations indicate one thing: information asymmetry is too severe. --- The bears are definitely panicking now, but I still think this isn't over. --- That's why I don't really trust Polymarket's short-term predictions; the volatility is just too crazy. --- Looking at how the odds are dropping, it seems the market has woken up. --- Cooling down is normal; let's wait and see what happens next. It doesn't seem that simple. --- Where's the promised short-term trigger? A bunch of people blindly betting on trends is really... --- Geopolitical situations are like this; whoever can predict accurately will make a fortune. --- But there are still optimistic people, which shows some still think the probability isn't low.

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CryptoDouble-O-Seven

· 01-15 19:57

Another crappy ending storyline, the market speculates for a long time and nothing happens in the end, hilarious.

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MevTears

· 01-15 19:53

Once again, missed out. The guys who rushed in earlier probably have to cut their losses now.

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MetaverseVagabond

· 01-15 19:33

Another fake move, predicting the market is really becoming less and less valuable... Not only are the shorts being trapped alive, but they also have to watch the heat cool down helplessly. This game is really frustrating.

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