2026-01-15 19:34:37

Many retail investors fall into a vicious cycle: on one hand, they want to achieve consistent and stable returns, but on the other hand, they cannot explain why such stability can exist—simply put, it doesn't.

You hope to always maintain an edge in an infinite game, but reality will slap you in the face. The same applies to professional institutions. The collapse of LTCM and the Castle Fund's underperformance last year all tell the same truth: when facing chaotic and random markets, no matter how advanced the model or how clever the strategy, they are ultimately bound to fail. The complexity of the market far exceeds anyone's predictive ability.

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TopBuyerBottomSeller

· 9h ago

Stable returns? Buddy, you're dreaming. The market is just a casino. Exactly right, a bunch of people hyping up stable strategies every day, but one black swan and they're all gone. Even the geniuses at LTCM crashed, what more do we want? Really, no matter how smart the model is, it can't withstand the market's madness. We have to accept that. I just want to ask, who can really make steady profits? Come out and chat. The market's randomness is so strong, still fantasizing about continuous gains is truly self-deception.

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ApeWithAPlan

· 9h ago

Stable returns? Ha, retail investors are still dreaming --- To be honest, I am the type who has been slapped in the face... No matter how good the model is, it's useless --- LTCM should have warned everyone early on, but still, a bunch of people are thinking they can make quick money --- The market is just random; accepting this is half the battle won --- Always winning? Dream on, even the big players have had failures, why should we

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AirdropHarvester

· 9h ago

Stable returns? Ha, that's a fairy tale. No one can beat the market, even the big players have to kneel. Honestly, it's just about wanting to earn passively. Wake up, everyone. No matter how powerful the model is, it's still a paper tiger; the market can turn on a dime. I just want to ask retail investors, do you really think you're smarter than LTCM? Alright, stop fooling yourselves. Acknowledging the risks is the first step.

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0xOverleveraged

· 9h ago

Exactly right. Retail investors are always killed by this illusion, constantly chasing impossible dreams. Stable returns? Wake up. That's just the bait institutions use to trap retail investors. No matter how powerful the model is, it can't withstand a market's random walk. In the end, it's still a gambler's mentality. That LTCM episode was truly the end. Even the elites got burned. What are we still hoping for? Infinite gambling has no guaranteed way to win. As long as you're playing, you're only risking liquidation.

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SatoshiChallenger

· 9h ago

Ironically, retail investors love to hear the phrase "stable returns," but even the geniuses at LTCM didn't escape 2008. --- The ones who can truly make money never dare to say "stable"; those who do are basically selling courses. --- Interesting, another person who thinks they can tame the market has appeared, and the data will speak. --- Infinite gambling? More like endless self-deception, and they insist on adding a "scientific model" label. --- Did the Castle Fund underperform last year? Well, at least they are still alive, with a longer lifespan than most small retail accounts. --- At the end of the day, it's a psychological issue—fantasizing despite knowing it doesn't exist. The market loves this kind of leek. --- In the face of chaos and randomness, everyone is equal—that's the true democracy of the market, haha. --- The endgame of all models is collapse; the question is whether you can make money before it crashes.

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GasGasGasBro

· 9h ago

Stable returns? Uh... this word should probably be banned in the crypto circle haha Dreaming of always making money, everyone should see how LTCM died No matter how good the model is, the market is just like this. Accept it, brothers Honestly, it's mostly luck; no matter how strong the technology, it's useless In infinite gambling, no one can always win, that's the truth Some people really believe they can achieve stable returns? I haven't seen it The moment the model fails is when you're the clearest-headed The market doesn't follow rules at all; we're all just leeks, haha No matter how sophisticated the strategy, it can't beat randomness. Giving up, everyone? That's why I gave up looking for a guaranteed winning method; it's too exhausting

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CommunityLurker

· 9h ago

Stable returns? I think it's stable losses haha --- Well said, I'm just worried some people can't listen and still insist on betting against the market --- I still haven't figured out the LTCM incident, no matter how brilliant someone is, they have to kneel --- So what should we do, lie flat? --- Playing a game you can never win, is this the fate of retail investors? --- The market is just a big casino, no one can escape --- How painful it is when a brilliant strategy fails... --- Sounds ridiculous, and they really think they can't be harvested like leeks

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