The prediction market is under global crackdown: Ukraine's ban is just the tip of the iceberg

Against the backdrop of increasing cryptocurrency regulation, the prediction market platform Polymarket recently faced new setbacks. Ukraine has officially banned users from accessing this globally renowned prediction trading platform, marking a further escalation in worldwide efforts to crack down on such applications. This incident reflects the growing scrutiny by regulatory authorities worldwide over prediction markets.

Why did Ukraine ban Polymarket?

War-related bets become the trigger for the ban

On December 10, 2025, the National Electronic Communications Regulatory Commission of Ukraine officially listed Polymarket in the public registry of blocked websites based on Resolution No. 695. The ban primarily targets online betting activities without valid domestic licenses.

Ukrainian officials explicitly stated that the core reason for this move was the geopolitical betting products related to the Russia-Ukraine military conflict on Polymarket. Although Polymarket’s operational mechanism differs from traditional sports betting—users participate by purchasing shares related to specific outcomes, with prices determined by market implied probabilities—regulators believe this distinction is merely technical; fundamentally, it still constitutes unauthorized betting activities.

Expansion of the global ban map

Ukraine’s ban has worsened Polymarket’s predicament. This prediction platform, valued at approximately $8 billion, is currently inaccessible in at least 33 countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Singapore, Australia, and other major markets. In some regions, users are only allowed to close existing positions, but new trades are prohibited. Polymarket’s official documentation attributes these restrictions to a combination of international sanctions, local gambling laws, financial regulations, and anti-money laundering requirements.

Systemic crackdown on prediction markets worldwide

Surge in US regulatory pressure

Ukraine’s actions are not isolated. Regulatory efforts in the United States are also intensifying. On January 9, the Tennessee Sports Wagering Advisory Council issued cease-and-desist orders to Polymarket, Kalshi, and Crypto.com, accusing these platforms of operating unlicensed sports betting products in violation of state law. Although these platforms are registered as designated contract markets with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), state regulators have taken action.

Federal-level attention is also expanding. On January 6, New York State Assemblyman Ritchie Torres announced plans to introduce the “Financial Prediction Markets Public Integrity Act” in 2026, bringing public policy and social integrity issues into the review scope.

Platforms’ responses and challenges

Founded by Shane Coplan in 2020, Polymarket has become one of the most influential prediction trading platforms globally. All transactions on the platform are conducted using USDC stablecoins on the Polygon blockchain, ensuring transparency and traceability. Supporters often emphasize the advantages of this on-chain transparency over offshore gambling sites, but regulatory authorities in multiple jurisdictions do not agree.

After exiting the US market in 2022 and paying a $1.4 million fine to resolve CFTC allegations, Polymarket has been testing US trading within limited scope through the acquisition of QCX LLC and obtaining a designated contract market license. However, a new wave of regulatory pressure has cast more uncertainty over its plans to re-enter the US market.

Regulatory dilemmas of prediction markets

The core value of prediction markets lies in their functions as price discovery and information aggregation tools. However, there are differing opinions among regulators worldwide: should they be classified as financial derivatives or gambling products? This difference in classification has led to inconsistent regulation globally.

Recent measures in Ukraine, the US, and other regions indicate that as the influence and user base of prediction markets continue to grow, more countries are inclined to include them under strict gambling or financial regulatory frameworks. This presents significant challenges to the industry’s development prospects and sends clear signals about the evolution of regulation within the crypto ecosystem.