XRP: On-chain signals and bullish divergence indicate a reversal opportunity

Ripple XRP is currently oscillating around $2.06, with a 24-hour decline of 3.96%, and a daily trading volume of approximately $85.15 million. This price level is at a critical battleground zone, with multiple technical indicators quietly changing, hinting that the market may be brewing a turning point.

On-Chain Anomalies Signal Long-Term Accumulation

Most notably, the amount of XRP held in exchange wallets has fallen to 1.6 billion tokens, the lowest in the past seven years. Compared to 3.76 billion tokens in October this year, this represents a decrease of up to 57%. Such a large-scale outflow of chips usually indicates two possibilities: holders are losing interest in the current price, or more funds are opting for long-term self-management rather than exchange custody. Regardless of the case, it reflects a subtle shift in market participants’ attitudes.

Key Divergence Phenomenon in Technicals

The price structure shows a typical pressure accumulation pattern. From the initial rally in July, to sideways consolidation in October, and then a slow decline, XRP’s movement fully conforms to standard cyclical characteristics. However, the most noteworthy is the bullish divergence between the RSI indicator and the price trend.

Specifically, while the price continues to make new lows, the RSI lows are gradually rising. This divergence usually signals that selling pressure is waning, and buying interest may be quietly accumulating. Meanwhile, RSI has started to rebound from the oversold region, further reinforcing the possibility of market sentiment recovery.

Support and Resistance Define a Clear Trading Framework

The $1.86 zone is acting as a key support level. If this level can hold effectively, the market structure may turn positively. The first resistance above is at the $2 round number, with a breakout targeting $2.75. On the downside, if support fails, the next price target is $1.50.

From an intraday trading perspective, a reversal pattern near $1.82 often triggers upward momentum; whereas, selling pressure at $1.98 could present shorting opportunities.

Moving Average Cycles Reappear

It is worth noting that XRP has been trading below the 50-week moving average for over two consecutive months. This technical phenomenon has previously appeared before a significant rebound of 850%. History does not repeat exactly, but it often rhymes — such ultra-long-term moving average suppression often hints at an impending strong rebound.

The current narrow oscillation combined with active trading volume is accumulating energy for the next directional breakout. Market participants are closely watching this evolution.