Talking about the 67th day of playing NBA trades in the prediction market.

Today was another disappointing ending—2 for 1, break even after both ways, no profit, no loss. But other sectors are still bleeding, which is tough.

Need to review thoroughly. The original bet on the Pelicans +2.5 actually had no problem; the logic was clear: matchups between teams at the bottom of the East and West, and such games usually don't have outrageous point spreads. In contrast, the Nets -2.5 was a bit of a stretch, with clearly insufficient support. So I decisively made a counter-move—abandoned the original idea and went short on that point spread.

This is the daily life of the prediction market. On a single day, it might be a tie, but if you keep doing this repeatedly, the problems will gradually surface. Every trade should prompt you to ask: why would the opposing side agree to this odds? If you can't figure it out, then don't touch it.

Keep honing your trading intuition.