Can Toncoin Break Through $1.91? What Latest Technical Indicators Reveal About TON's Next Move

With The Open Network (TON) trading at $1.69 amid market uncertainty, technical analysts are closely watching whether this asset can stage a meaningful recovery. Recent price action and key technical indicators suggest potential for a significant move, though the path forward depends on critical support and resistance levels holding firm.

Where TON Stands Today: The Current Market Picture

Toncoin is currently navigating a delicate technical landscape. The latest price data shows TON at $1.69, down 4.26% over the past 24 hours with modest trading volume of $1.09M. This pullback comes despite earlier bullish signals that had analysts eyeing more ambitious targets. The challenge for bulls is clear: establishing conviction above near-term resistance barriers before momentum fades entirely.

From a technical standpoint, the current setup reveals mixed but intriguing signals. Bollinger Bands positioning places TON in the lower-middle zone of its recent trading range (0.35 relative position), a location historically conducive to bounce scenarios. More importantly, the MACD histogram has turned positive at 0.0066—the first bullish signal in several sessions—while the main MACD line still trades in negative territory at -0.0552. This divergence between histogram and line suggests a momentum shift may be developing underneath the surface.

The RSI indicator at 42.59 sits in neutral territory but tilted toward oversold conditions, leaving considerable room for upward movement without triggering overbought warnings that typically precede pullbacks.

The Price Prediction: Where Could TON Go?

Technical analysis points to a potential recovery that could carry TON toward $1.91 within the short term. This level represents the 50% Fibonacci retracement from recent highs and aligns with significant volume profile resistance. Reaching this target would represent approximately 13% upside from current trading levels.

For a medium-term outlook extending through early 2026, analysts suggest a broader range of $1.75 to $2.15 as reasonable parameters. The upper boundary at $2.17 represents strong resistance where institutional selling historically emerges, typically requiring sustained buying pressure and favorable macro conditions to overcome.

On the downside, the $1.42 level functions as critical support, combining both immediate and stronger confluent support zones. Breaking below this floor would invalidate bullish scenarios and potentially trigger accelerated selling toward the $1.20-$1.25 range in a more severe bearish outcome.

Immediate Hurdles: Breaking Past $1.71

The first meaningful challenge sits at $1.71, representing the upper Bollinger Band and immediate resistance. A decisive break above this level on volume expansion would likely attract momentum algorithms and institutional capital, potentially catalyzing the move toward the $1.91 target stock price prediction that traders have been monitoring.

Below $1.71, the $1.57 level marks the most recent swing high and serves as a confirmation zone. Price action above this point indicates renewed buying pressure, while failure to reclaim it suggests continued consolidation or further downside risk.

Entry Strategies: How to Play the Setup

For traders considering positions at current levels, a layered approach manages risk effectively. Initial positions can be established at $1.69 with tight stop-losses at $1.41, containing downside exposure while maintaining upside participation.

Alternatively, more conservative traders might wait for a confirmed break above $1.57, sacrificing early entry but gaining certainty that upward momentum has truly established. This reduces false breakout risk, a particular concern given current market volatility and mixed technical signals from moving average studies.

Additional buying on dips toward $1.46-$1.47 offers another opportunity, with this zone representing the convergence of short-term moving averages and psychological support. Position sizing should remain modest—maximum 2-3% of portfolio allocation—until clearer directional conviction emerges and volatility subsides.

Bull vs Bear: Scenarios for 2025-2026

The Bullish Case: TON clears $1.71 with volume confirmation, triggers momentum algorithms, and runs toward $1.91. Broader cryptocurrency market recovery and sustained institutional buying push the narrative further toward $2.17 over 4-6 weeks.

The Bearish Case: Renewed selling pressure below $1.42 breaks critical support, accelerating moves toward $1.20-$1.25. Regulatory headwinds affecting the Telegram ecosystem, broader crypto deterioration, or technical breakdowns below key moving averages catalyze this downside scenario.

Key Monitoring Points Going Forward

Confirmation signals for the bullish scenario include: MACD histogram remaining positive, RSI moving decisively above 45, and volume expansion accompanying any move beyond $1.57. These indicators suggest conviction in upward direction rather than mere technical bouncing.

The invalidation threshold remains $1.42. Any close below this level requires immediate position reassessment and suggests the recovery attempt has failed, at least temporarily.

Traders should maintain close attention to Bitcoin’s price action, as Toncoin remains substantially correlated with broader cryptocurrency sentiment. When BTC struggles, TON typically follows, regardless of its own technical setup quality. The prediction window extends through early 2026, with initial confirmation or denial of the bullish hypothesis expected within 3-5 trading days from current levels.

The Fear & Greed Index at extreme lows historically marks inflection points where contrarian opportunities emerge, though timing remains notoriously difficult in real-world conditions.