When Will Crypto Bull Markets Return? 2026 Emerges as Key Inflection Point

Market observers have shifted focus from 2025’s disappointing performance to 2026 as a potential turning point for the crypto industry. The delay in anticipated gains doesn’t necessarily signal failure—instead, it reflects broader macroeconomic headwinds that have kept risk assets subdued throughout the year.

Why 2025 Fell Short: Manufacturing Weakness Signals Caution

The muted performance stems largely from structural weaknesses in the U.S. manufacturing sector, which remains a critical economic indicator despite the AI boom capturing headlines. Manufacturing contributes roughly 10%-11% to U.S. GDP and provides employment for approximately 13 million workers nationwide.

The numbers tell a sobering story. The ISM manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.2 in November, marking nine straight months of contraction. This wasn’t an isolated dip—new orders tumbled to the mid-47 range, while employment figures fell near 44. Perhaps most revealing: approximately 67% of manufacturers reported maintaining headcount levels rather than expanding hiring, indicating defensive business postures across the sector.

Even the ISM’s official stance acknowledged that more than half of manufacturing-related economic activity remained in contraction. This underlying weakness persisted even as the AI narrative dominated market discussions, creating a disconnect between tech optimism and actual economic breadth.

The Bullish Case for 2026: Infrastructure Investment Wave

When investors ask when the next crypto bull run might arrive, attention increasingly points to the structural shifts underway in infrastructure spending. The confluence of accelerating capital expenditure, improving monetary conditions, and earnings growth creates a markedly different backdrop than 2025 offered.

U.S. data center spending provides the clearest window into this transformation. Outlays exceeded $400 billion in 2025 and face projections of approximately $600 billion in 2026, with further expansion to over $700 billion expected by 2027. This investment extends well beyond software—it encompasses physical infrastructure buildouts including advanced servers, cutting-edge semiconductor equipment, power distribution systems, and large-scale construction projects.

The global picture appears even more ambitious. Market analysts anticipate more than 2,000 new data centers will come online by 2030, driving infrastructure investment approaches toward $7 trillion over a five-year window.

Liquidity and Valuation: The Missing Pieces Falling Into Place

Alongside this capital expenditure wave, monetary conditions are expected to ease materially. The Federal Reserve has signaled an end to quantitative tightening, with balance sheet operations projected to resume at roughly $40 billion monthly. Easier financial conditions historically support risk asset appreciation and create tailwinds for speculative markets.

Corporate profitability forecasts also strengthen the bull case. S&P 500 earnings growth is anticipated to reach approximately 14% in 2026—substantially higher than the constrained environment of recent years. Higher corporate earnings, combined with monetary expansion, typically reduces discount rates applied to future cash flows.

Market Sentiment: A Historical Pattern Worth Watching

History suggests that genuine bull markets rarely originate during periods of widespread enthusiasm. Instead, sustainable rallies typically emerge when sentiment has become deeply exhausted, pessimistic, and skeptical—conditions that arguably describe much of 2025.

If manufacturing stabilizes, data center spending accelerates as projected, and the Federal Reserve indeed pivot toward easier policy, 2026 could deliver the sustained upside that the crypto market failed to capture this year. The timing of a potential crypto bull run remains uncertain, but the structural pieces appear to be aligning for a more favorable 2026 setup.