Ladies and gentlemen, a major event is happening tonight—at 23:00, the final ruling on the legality of Trump's tariff policy will be announced. According to the latest market data, the probability of Trump losing the case has risen to 72%, which directly relates to whether the over $130 billion in tariffs already collected will be refunded. Sounds like good news? Don’t celebrate just yet; this situation is much more complex than last year.

Why did the same policy last year trigger a completely different market reaction? The key lies in the fact that the underlying market logic has completely changed. At this time last year, Trump's tariff policies fueled inflation expectations, leading to rising commodity prices and a decline in risk assets. Back then, if the tariffs were deemed illegal, the market would see it as a relief from inflationary pressure, and the cryptocurrency market would inevitably benefit.

But now, the situation is like solving a multi-layered logical puzzle. First, the refund process of over $130 billion is itself full of uncertainties. The refunds are targeted at importers, not directly injecting liquidity into the market, so the effects are entirely different. Second, the specific rules for refunds—who qualifies, the amount, installment periods—are still uncertain.

Even more concerning is that the White House has already signaled that even if Trump loses, he won't give up easily. They still hold multiple cards, such as Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974—this clause has never been activated before, but once used, it allows for the direct imposition of a 15% tariff within 150 days. This means that the apparent policy shift might just be a legal formality to continue pushing forward.

The underlying logic is that the uncertainty surrounding trade policy has been thoroughly locked in. Regardless of tonight’s verdict, the market faces ongoing policy fluctuations. In this context, contract holders need to be especially cautious—such a level of uncertainty can trigger violent volatility similar to contract delivery days. Don’t operate blindly tonight; the key is to understand the true intent behind the policies, rather than being led by a single piece of news.