I recently came across a set of data: the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November dropped to 50.3, hitting a three-year low. To be honest, at first glance, this news felt a bit depressing—but I started to think about what it might mean for our crypto circle.

What exactly is this index? Simply put, it’s a measure of how ordinary Americans perceive the economy— their "feeling temperature." Below 50 points generally indicates that most people are not optimistic about the current situation and have little hope for the future. Regarding the November data, consumers’ assessments of their financial situation declined by about 15%, 70% of people expect the unemployment rate to rise, and inflation expectations are actually higher—this is a typical mindset of "worried about losing jobs and worried about rising prices."

It’s important to note that all this happened on the 38th day of the U.S. government shutdown. This is the longest shutdown in U.S. history, with economic losses potentially amounting to a gap of 70 to 140 billion dollars.

On the surface, consumer confidence falling suggests the economy is really struggling, and risk assets are likely to suffer. But here’s an interesting point—the logic in the crypto world is a bit different. In the short term, a decline in the confidence index can influence how the Federal Reserve adjusts its policies, and policy changes play a crucial role in market trends. Those who have experienced several bull and bear cycles probably understand that sometimes, the most pessimistic moments are actually the prelude to a new opportunity.