Polymarket's Most Outlandish Predictions: When Crypto Markets Turn into a Spectacle

Polymarket and similar prediction platforms have revolutionized betting by taking it out of stadiums and applying it to unimaginable domains. Between the coming of Christ and revelations about extraterrestrials, users of these decentralized markets demonstrate sometimes delirious creativity. How do these absurd bets reflect the mindset of the crypto community? A look at the most mind-boggling bets of 2025.

When GTA VI Anticipation Inspires Messianic Wishes

The repeated announcement of Grand Theft Auto VI has created growing frustration among fans. After an initial announcement scheduled for May, Rockstar Games announced a new delay in November: fall 2026. This news triggered a stunned reaction on Polymarket. Faced with this disappointment, users began to heavily bet on an otherwise unlikely event: the Second Coming of Christ would occur before the game’s release.

The numbers speak for themselves. Before the official delay, less than 20% of bettors seriously considered this option. On November 7, that percentage exploded to 48%. The amounts wagered exceeded $3.6 million. This phenomenon reveals an amusing truth: gaming enthusiasts seriously consider that the return of Jesus Christ is more probable than waiting until fall 2026.

On another page of Polymarket dedicated specifically to the coming of Christ in 2025, the sentiment is quite different. The “yes” received only 2% of the votes. This illustrates how context radically influences betting decisions. The absurdity of the GTA VI delay served as an amplifier for disillusioned humor.

Trump and the Magic Word “Hottest”

The “Mentions” section of Polymarket offers bets on every word that public figures might utter. In 2025, one of the most richly funded bets concerned a very specific question: Would Donald Trump use the word “hottest” during his meeting with British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer on September 8?

Over $1.3 million was wagered on this micro-targeted prediction. The absurdity seems total, but it reveals a key dynamic: as long as there is a chance for quick gain, bettors are willing to invest. The final result? The platform reports a dispute over the judgment, suggesting Trump probably did not utter the term. This incident demonstrates how even the most bizarre questions attract significant financial volumes.

Extraterrestrials, Earth’s Flatness, and Other Cosmic Questions

The obsession with extraterrestrial life persists despite NASA’s silence. On Polymarket, users have wagered $4.6 million on the prediction that the US government would confirm the existence of extraterrestrial life or technology by December 31, 2025. In January, after UFO sightings in California, the “yes” option reached 14%. In November, it had fallen to 4%.

A revealing fact: even the July statement that object 3I/ATLAS could be an alien spacecraft did not significantly influence bets. Beliefs in Jesus sightings and other cosmic phenomena show remarkable persistence.

Meanwhile, 0.7% of bettors remain convinced that solid evidence of Earth’s flatness will be published by the end of December. This market has absorbed about $200,000 in wagers, demonstrating that even scientifically refuted theories find investors.

Would Satoshi Nakamoto Be Donald Trump?

The quest to identify Bitcoin’s creator continues to fuel crypto debates. Polymarket proposes a surreal hypothesis: Donald Trump himself, having become a crypto champion, is the real Satoshi Nakamoto. Only 0.6% of bettors answered “yes” to this question. This figure is eloquent: even the crypto community, accustomed to wild theories, does not believe in this connection.

Some theorists suggest that Satoshi Nakamoto is an acronym combining the names of tech giants: Samsung, Toshiba, Nakamichi, and Motorola. Compared to this creative hypothesis, the idea that Trump is involved seems even more unlikely.

The Controversy Over Zelensky’s Wardrobe

Beyond the five most spectacular bets lies a case illustrating the real risks of prediction markets: the debate over Volodymyr Zelensky’s suit. In May 2025, bettors wagered significant sums on the following question: Would the Ukrainian president wear a suit between May 22 and June 30?

Zelensky, known for his sober military attire adopted since the escalation of the conflict in 2022, appeared at the Oval Office on February 28. Donald Trump commented on his outfit, saying “You are well dressed today.” During his visit, Zelensky was indeed wearing what looked like a suit.

Initially, the market was settled as “yes.” But the platform reversed its decision, judging that the outfit in question did not meet the definition of a true suit. This reversal sparked massive objections, including from professional journalists confirming the clothing’s existence. This incident exposes a critical vulnerability: poorly formulated rules and discretionary interpretation can turn a legitimate bet into an arbitrary disagreement.

Absurdity as a Market Indicator

These bets reveal less a widespread madness than an economic reality: money flows into Polymarket regardless of the actual probability of events. The “degen” culture of decentralized finance has created a space where absurdity takes precedence over logic. The large financial volumes wagered on unlikely events attest that Polymarket functions more like a creative casino than a true prediction market.

The legitimate question remains: do these markets reflect public sentiment, or do they simply manipulate it? With millions of dollars influencing the displayed probabilities, the risk that Polymarket becomes a tool for disinformation increases significantly, especially in sensitive areas like political elections.