Is the Bitcoin Bear Market Actually Here? One Critical Indicator Still Hasn't Given the Signal

The Pullback Looks Severe, But the Setup Doesn’t Match

The crypto market has experienced significant downward pressure over recent weeks. Market observers have pointed to the sharp correction as evidence that the crypto bear market has already arrived. The total crypto market capitalization dropped from near $3.94 trillion in early October to approximately $3.20 trillion currently—a substantial decline that naturally fuels bearish sentiment.

However, when examining the technical landscape more carefully, the narrative becomes less clear-cut. Several warning signs exist on the charts, yet the most definitive cycle-top indicator—the one that has accurately marked the last three Bitcoin peaks—remains dormant. This disconnect raises an important question: has the cycle truly peaked, or are we witnessing a correction within an ongoing uptrend?

Multiple Bearish Signals Are Present, But Incomplete

Price action provides the first observation. Bitcoin has broken below its 50-week moving average, a technical level that traders monitor for medium-term trend shifts. Chart comparisons to previous cycles (2015-2018 and 2018-2021) suggest a potential peak formation in late October, reinforcing the bear thesis.

On-chain metrics also show activity typical of distribution phases. The Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) indicator reveals that long-term holders are moving Bitcoin, which traditionally signals potential selling pressure. Additionally, Bitcoin ETF outflows in recent months added to the bearish narrative.

Current Market Data:

• BTC Price: $95.42K
• 24H Change: -2.29%
• Market Cap: $1,906.23B

Yet here’s where the picture becomes interesting: total Bitcoin ETF inflows remain above $60 billion year-to-date, with several major institutional funds continuing to accumulate. This mixed signal creates tension between short-term weakness and long-term positioning.

The Pi Cycle Top Indicator: Why It Still Matters

Every Bitcoin market cycle has followed a consistent pattern—and this one may not be an exception. The Pi Cycle Top indicator, which uses two moving average crossovers, has successfully identified the last three major Bitcoin peaks with remarkable precision. It triggered near the tops in 2013, 2017, and 2021.

Here’s the critical point: the indicator has not yet signaled.

The two moving averages remain significantly separated, suggesting the model has not identified a cycle peak. If a genuine market top had occurred, this historically reliable model should have already activated. Its silence is deafening.

Why the Crypto Bear Market Narrative May Be Premature

Historical data reveals an unbroken pattern: bear markets in Bitcoin’s history have always begun after a confirmed cycle top—never before it. Not once has a bear market commenced ahead of the peak.

Additionally, the character of this correction differs from past tops. Price declines have been gradual rather than violent. Long-term holders are selling into weakness this cycle, whereas they typically sold into strength during previous tops. CDD is rising, but not dramatically. ETF flows show institutions remain divided rather than in panic mode.

What This Means for the Current Cycle

The crypto market environment has evolved since earlier cycles. Bitcoin ETFs now control billions in assets and create daily flow dynamics that introduce new market mechanics. However, these same funds continue adding to positions, suggesting institutional conviction remains.

The absence of the Pi Cycle Top signal is particularly noteworthy. Throughout Bitcoin’s history, this indicator has never missed an actual cycle peak. If traders are correct that the bear market has begun, this would be the first time the model failed to trigger—an unprecedented break in pattern.

Bottom line: The market may experience continued short-term weakness, but the technical and on-chain evidence for a completed cycle remains inconclusive. Until the Pi Cycle indicator flashes and traditional peak characteristics emerge—explosive selling, extreme ETF flows, and sharp profit-taking—the case for a finished bull cycle remains unproven.