Bitcoin's Major Upside Signal: Why The Cycle Top Has Yet To Arrive

The Bitcoin market has experienced a sharp correction since peaking at $126,080 in early October, with BTC currently trading around $95,440—a pullback of approximately $30,000. Despite widespread bearish sentiment, crypto analyst Nick Waterman has outlined a compelling case suggesting that this downturn does not signal the end of the current cycle. His analysis points to several structural indicators that historically precede Bitcoin’s ultimate peak.

Historical Cycle Patterns Point To Further Upside

Waterman highlights a critical pattern across previous Bitcoin cycles: corrections and consolidation phases are standard features before final tops, not indicators that the cycle has concluded. What distinguishes this pullback from a cycle peak is the behavior of complementary assets and market infrastructure metrics.

Gold and silver reached all-time highs in December 2025, while Bitcoin remained under pressure. Historically, this sequencing has been a reliable precursor—precious metals peak first, followed by Bitcoin rallying to new highs weeks or months later. The inverse correlation to BTC’s current underperformance suggests runway for recovery.

Another telling indicator is the Coinbase app ranking on the App Store. During the October $126,080 peak, Coinbase ranked only 280th—far below its number 1 position during previous cycle peaks. This metric has consistently served as a euphoria gauge; its current position implies that institutional and retail adoption waves have not yet peaked.

Missing Signals Of Market Euphoria

Several additional markers confirm the cycle remains in mid-to-late stages, not terminal phases. Altcoins have declined 60-80% from their peaks with no seasonal momentum, suggesting capital rotation into Bitcoin rather than broad market euphoria. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has not crossed 90 during this cycle, historically a prerequisite for tops. The MVRV Z-Score sits below 3, when previous cycle peaks required readings above 6.

The Expected Wave Of Market Re-Entry

According to Waterman’s framework, a cascade of investor cohorts will likely return to the market sequentially. Early 2025 exits will re-enter first, followed by 2024 withdrawals, then the 2021-2022 investor cohort. Finally, new retail participation will surge—the signal that euphoria has truly peaked. Each wave adds fuel to continued appreciation.

With Bitcoin trading $30,000 below its October high against multiple indicators suggesting mid-cycle status, the analyst argues that premature exits now could cost investors significantly.