Bitcoin fluctuates around the $95,000 level—short-term power struggle seen from technical signals

BTC Technical Outlook as of January 15, 2026

Bitcoin recently retraced to $95.44K, turning down by -2.24% over 24 hours. However, when viewing the daily chart as a whole, the overall upward structure remains intact. This report summarizes the current technical situation and key points to watch for future price movements.

Current Market Situation—Correction Phase or Accumulation?

As of January 15, BTC is trading within a range of $95.14K to $97.72K, with a 24-hour volume reaching $1.23B. Looking at the overall market cap dominance, Bitcoin’s dominance stands at 56.48%, still holding a commanding position and maintaining relative strength against altcoins.

The rise from the $92,076 level last week suggests buyers are still participating. However, recent days’ correction can be interpreted as a cooling-off of short-term overheating. For technical traders, such corrections are often seen as preparation phases for the next move.

The EMA20 (short-term moving average) is positioned around the $95,000 level, and whether this level holds will be a key factor in determining the continuation of the current trend soon.

Support and Resistance—Reference Levels the Market Should Follow

Major Support Levels

The most reliable support is at $91,357 (score 77/100). This zone coincides with daily pivot points and Fibonacci retracement levels, making it a natural defensive line for technical traders. A decline to this level could likely trigger a rebound.

The next support is at $89,307 (score 63/100), where the 3-day moving average and EMA50 converge. If deeper correction occurs, $80,600 (score 62/100) on the weekly chart could serve as a solid support.

Major Resistance Levels

The immediate hurdle is at $92,882 (score 67/100). Breaking above this level is the first critical step to determine the next move.

Above that, $94,724 (score 60/100) is a key resistance, and further upward targets include $108,780 (score 65/100). The psychological barrier of $100,000 remains a significant mid-term milestone.

Technical Indicators—Bullish and Bearish Tensions

Bullish Signals

The RSI (14) stands at 57.43, indicating a neutral to slightly bullish zone, not yet overbought at 70. The MACD shows expanding positive histogram, with a confirmed bullish crossover where the MACD line crosses above the signal line.

The EMA stack is ideal: price above EMA20, with EMA20 above EMA50, indicating an upward bias. The Ichimoku Cloud shows price above the cloud, with the conversion and baseline lines in a golden cross, supporting bullish momentum.

Cautionary Signals

The Supertrend indicator is signaling bearish, which is a critical warning. As a trailing indicator, it suggests skepticism about the current trend’s sustainability and hints at potential reversals.

The Stochastic Oscillator is around 75%, indicating short-term overbought conditions and a possible slowdown or correction.

International Price Movement Perspective—BTC to NZD

Viewing Bitcoin in NZD terms, besides the BTC/USD fluctuations, the NZD’s movements are also important. Currently, with BTC/USD in a correction phase, the cross rate (BTC to NZD) also reflects similar technical levels as reference points. For international technical traders, confirming support and resistance across multiple currency pairs enhances the robustness of trading strategies.

Risk-Reward Assessment and Strategy Planning

From the current $95.44K level, a bullish scenario targets approximately an 8% rise to $103,000. On the downside, risk extends to about 16% down to $80,000, but if the support at $91,357 holds, the effective risk is limited to 3-5%.

Long Scenario Break above $92,882 → test $94,700 → confirm volume → target $103,000 for the strongest bullish outlook.

Short Scenario Drop below $91,357 → sharp decline to $89,300 → chain down to $80,600. In this case, Supertrend reversal and RSI dropping below 50 are likely to occur simultaneously.

Positioning Approach In a low-volatility environment indicated by ATR (~2,500), strict position sizing is essential. Leverage in futures trading requires caution, and the liquidity in spot markets often provides safety.

Outlook—Mid-January to Month-End Focus

Multi-timeframe analysis reveals 15 key levels across daily, 3-day, and weekly charts. The higher the convergence of these levels, the more likely a breakout from a range-bound market will gain momentum.

Short-term, the bias is bullish; medium-term, sideways zones pose risk factors. Technical traders should leverage multi-timeframe convergence, while scalpers should consider the high-volume node near $92,000 as a pivot point.

Long-term holders see the upward structure still unblemished, with a 10-15% correction being a natural part of the price action. External macro risks, such as US inflation data, could trigger volatility spikes, so preparedness for external shocks is crucial.

The 2026 rally is still in its early stages, and the coming months are expected to be characterized by trial and error. Under technical dominance, patience and disciplined position management are likely to be rewarded.