Bitcoin consolidates around 95K, the next major test is breaking 100K!

According to CoinDesk: BTC remains stable near $95,000, after reaching a high of 97K and then pulling back. Traders' consensus is becoming clearer: the next step is to test the $100,000 mark, but it is more likely to be a "probing" rise rather than a long-term breakthrough in one go.

Key data and insights:
• Polymarket prediction: 54% chance that BTC reaches 100K within January, only 22% for 105K, and just 8% for 110K

• Recent rebound mainly driven by spot buying, with low leverage futures participation, making the market healthier

• Perpetual contract funding rates have turned negative (shorts pay longs). If spot demand continues, a short squeeze may be triggered

• Institutional and market maker views are converging: 100K is the next important psychological and technical threshold, but breaking through is not easy

Short-term outlook:
If BTC can hold above 95K and increase volume upward, a new rally could be initiated; if multiple attempts to test 100K fail, a pullback to the 93-94K range for consolidation is possible.

Overall, leverage is not overheated, and spot support remains, so the bull market structure is intact.

Policy factors, the Fed's rate cut expectations, and continuous institutional inflows remain the main themes in the medium to long term.

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