#美联储降息 Seeing this warning from Nomura Securities, my first reaction is — this is exactly the moment we need to pay close attention to.

The policy changes expected after the new Federal Reserve Chair takes office in May next year may seem like technical adjustments, but they actually influence global capital flows. After the rate cut in June, if the Fed shifts to maintaining rates due to economic recovery, this policy reversal will directly challenge market expectations. More importantly, the five months from July to November are predicted to be a "period of concentrated uncertainty" — meaning that US Treasury yields, US stocks, and the US dollar could all experience significant adjustments.

I want to honestly tell everyone: this is not alarmism. Last year, I saw many investors chasing high US stock prices and increasing leverage during the "Federal Reserve rate cut" story, but they overlooked a fundamental principle — no good news lasts forever. When the market unanimously favors a certain direction, the risks are often greatest.

So my simple advice is: now is the time to review your positions. Don’t ask "Should I sell everything," but rather ask "If the US dollar assets experience a 20% correction in the next six months, can I stay calm?" If the answer is no, then your portfolio allocation might be somewhat unbalanced. Reducing concentration and increasing defensive assets appropriately — this kind of foresight is not conservatism, but a necessary lesson for mature investors.

In the long run, the Federal Reserve’s policies will ultimately return to fundamentals. But during this period, being cautious is really nothing to be ashamed of.