From technical indicators to candlestick structures, and then to market news, the logic is actually quite clear—the overall trend is downward.

Currently, the momentum in the crypto market is indeed lacking. Catalysts like BlackRock's capital inflow and Trump's interest rate cut comments triggered a wave of market movement, but fundamentally, the market is still in a state of recovery. It’s difficult for the big players to sustain a rally; instead, they tend to push prices up briefly and then dump, causing retail investors to get caught repeatedly. However, this operation has a side effect—the low points of BTC retracements are higher than those in December, indicating that the bullish foundation isn't as weak as it seems.

An interesting comparison is that recent market activity in crypto is noticeably weaker than in the US stock market. Remember October 10th? There was a liquidation of 16.3 billion USD in a single day, equivalent to the total liquidations of January and February combined. Subsequently, US stocks plummeted in November, and BTC also dropped, but now US stocks have already rebounded and hit new highs, while BTC is still struggling at the bottom—why? Because most retail investors have been wiped out, and the market needs time to nurture new retail participants and restore the sentiment of those caught in losses.

Any market movement needs fuel; without fuel, it’s just oscillation. This period is likely to be a back-and-forth test, but on a larger cycle, the monthly bottom is slowly rising. It’s similar to the monthly cycle trend after the black swan event in August 2024—bottom oscillations gradually lifting.

This kind of monthly cycle is expected to continue for at least another 2 months. For spot traders, it’s hard to catch big gains; at most, they can aim for mid-term gains within a single month. Holding long-term isn’t very meaningful. In contrast, contract traders are much more comfortable—they can steadily take advantage of swings during this period, and the safety margin is actually higher.