2026-01-16 09:27:07

The recent market cooling signals are very clear, with institutional funds beginning to hedge risks. Many hotly discussed projects are also gradually cooling down, and market sentiment is in a phase of downturn. The once-active hot sectors are weakening today as well, and the attitude of capital leaving the market is quite straightforward.

Looking back over these twenty-plus years of investment cycles, this kind of market behavior has been repeatedly played out. But interestingly, the projects that manage to survive each cycle all point to the same underlying logic: they must have genuine performance support, reasonable valuation anchors, a complete industrial chain, and confirmed orders to break free from short-term speculative constraints.

Reflecting on last year's Web3 tracks that achieved several times growth, such as projects with real application deployment, why could they keep rising? It’s not because of some magical theme catalyst, but because there is real demand at the industry level that is actually being fulfilled. In such cases, the capital market can form a healthy interaction with the actual industry. This also reveals a consensus among regulators and market participants: what the capital market needs is value support that “shifts from虚拟 to real,” rather than pure capital games detached from fundamentals.

Once you understand this logic, investors will not be tempted by the disorderly rise of short-term themes. Instead of following the trend blindly, it’s better to focus on studying the real industrial chain. Short-term pullbacks are nothing to worry about; the key is to grasp two core elements—demand turning points and order fulfillment—these are the “life-saving rules” amid market fluctuations. To truly understand the underlying logic of investing in crypto assets, it boils down to four words: industrial chain.

Another point to clarify is that the market has never lacked mechanisms to counteract irrational rises detached from fundamentals. Risk warnings from regulators and the reduction of holdings by project teams are often key signals indicating a market turning point.

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EternalMiner

· 3h ago

That's right, this time we really need to focus and analyze the industry chain carefully. Projects that are purely speculative and hype-driven will be the first to fail. Only those with genuine orders and real demand for implementation can survive.

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Web3Educator

· 7h ago

fundamentally speaking, this is exactly what i've been telling my students - the ones who panic sell during these cycles never make it to the next bull run, ngl

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CryptoCross-TalkClub

· 8h ago

Laughing to death, still talking about the industry chain salvation theory. What happened to those "real applications" from last year now? Institutional risk avoidance is just handing knives to the retail investors. I've heard this rhetoric through three bull and bear cycles. If there were projects with real orders landing, they would have skyrocketed long ago, and we wouldn't even have a chance. To put it simply: those who didn't catch up are trash projects, and those who did are prophets and visionaries. So the question is, which project are you currently holding that has "real performance"? It's quite accurate, but no one listens. In the next bull market, should everyone follow the trend or continue to follow the trend?

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HypotheticalLiquidator

· 8h ago

It sounds good, but even projects supported by the "industrial chain" are still plunging now. The risk control threshold has long since collapsed. With such a high lending rate, a systemic risk coming would be a domino effect. At this point, who still believes in fundamentals? Instead of studying the industrial chain, it's better to watch the liquidation prices... The signal of institutional risk aversion is quite intense. This round of deleveraging will trigger a series of liquidations. Don't be brainwashed by the "devirtualization to real" narrative. Those who truly survive rely on luck. With market sentiment falling to this level, there should be a bottom for the rebound... Now, entering the market requires careful consideration of stop-loss points.

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ApeShotFirst

· 8h ago

Sounds nice, but isn't it just another way to cut leeks? The last time I heard this, I already lost a lot. Institutional hedging is just hedging, anyway, retail investors like us are used to being harvested long ago, haha. Industrial chain, industrial chain, we've been talking about this for so many years and it's still the same. If there was real demand, it would have taken off long ago. Now talking about fundamentals really can't hold up. Wait, where are all those projects with several times growth you mentioned? Why is no one talking about them anymore? How much longer will this wave of market decline last? I've already tried to bottom fish three times and failed.

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GreenCandleCollector

· 8h ago

It sounds good, but the number of projects with real-world applications is painfully few.

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HodlAndChill

· 8h ago

The supply chain is the key, the虚 (virtual) will die sooner or later --- Again with this? Where are the real landing orders? Most projects don't have any --- Short-term pullbacks are not a big deal, the question is how many projects can survive until next year --- It sounds nice, but isn't it all about throwing money to see who's real and who's fake --- We've been hearing about shifting from虚 (virtual) to实 (real) for three years, but how many have actually succeeded --- This round of decline might just be a good opportunity to weed out the real projects, institutions are避险 (hedging risks), and we're bottom fishing --- Damn, do I have to study the产业链 (industry chain) again? I just want to trade for short-term gains --- The订单落地 (order landing) signal is too critical, gotta keep an eye on the project team's financial reports --- The attitude of资金离场 (funds leaving the market) is straightforward, it means no one trusts anymore --- Once the减持 (reduction of holdings) signal appears, it's basically over, just learn to read this

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