2026-01-16 09:27:30

The big rally of Solana and other altcoins has been over for five years. Looking back at the altcoin bull market that started in 2021, according to historical patterns, the year following Bitcoin halving is usually the window for altcoin season to explode. The halvings in 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024 all follow this pattern—altcoins begin to rotate one year after the halving. Based on this logic, 2025 should be the start year of altcoin season, but now it’s already 2026, and the anticipated market movement has not yet appeared.

What exactly is happening behind the scenes? Is the market structure changing? Projects like Ethereum and Pyth are also performing relatively calmly. From a historical cycle perspective, this delay has broken the previous pattern. If the altcoin track continues to remain silent, many small and medium projects may face severe liquidity challenges. The market needs some new catalysts to ignite investor enthusiasm, or else this waiting will become increasingly long.

BTC-0,42%

ETH-0,48%

SOL2,3%

PYTH0,76%

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BearMarketSurvivor

· 2h ago

Patterns are really becoming less reliable, this time almost delayed by a full year... --- Waiting again for a catalyst, but who knows if it will come --- Liquidity nightmare for small and mid-cap coins, I saw it coming a long time ago --- Is the historical cycle invalid? This time, it’s really different, isn’t it? --- Waiting for 2025 but it’s already 2026 and still dreaming about the copycat season --- ETH is so quiet that it’s a bit eerie, is this normal? --- Been waiting over a year with no movement, it’s a bit tiring, brother --- Market structure has changed, which will definitely affect the cycle, that’s easy to understand --- Catalyst? I think the catalyst is also hibernating --- The correlation between altcoins and Bitcoin doesn’t seem to be that tight anymore

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SmartContractWorker

· 9h ago

The feeling of rules being broken is really quite uncomfortable. I've been waiting for over two years... --- It feels like this time is different. Have the methods of big institutions entering changed? --- Instead of waiting for catalysts, why not create one ourselves... --- Breaking rules is just breaking rules. Anyway, I didn't make any profit from that wave. --- Small and medium projects are really dangerous this time. Liquidity issues will explode sooner or later. --- Has the historical pattern failed? Then what about my cost line, haha. --- 2025 didn't come, and there's no hope for 2026 either. --- Waiting, waiting, I'm exhausted... Is this really a turning point?

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StableGeniusDegen

· 9h ago

The rules have been broken. This time really feels different... Has Bitcoin eaten enough and stopped giving altcoins a share?

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gaslight_gasfeez

· 9h ago

The规律被打破了属实有点离谱，难不成这轮周期真的变了？ --- 2025都没等到山寨季，现在2026了还在等...感觉历史模型要翻车了 --- Honestly, waiting for catalysts for small and mid-cap coins is really too hard, liquidity deterioration is bound to happen sooner or later --- Wait, wait, wait, can the规律还能这么不讲究吗，这次是真的不一样了？ --- Halving规律失效？那我们还拿什么来预测啊，得想新办法 --- The past five years of shanzhai can be considered to have completely laid flat, when will it end --- Ethereum has been silent, probably the entire market structure is indeed quietly changing

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AirdropChaser

· 10h ago

The pattern isn't working anymore, listen to me, this year just hold steady and don't cut your losses. The altcoin wave is over, all the funds are being worn down in the BTC ecosystem. Wait, if it hasn't taken off in 2025, and now it's already 2026? That's not right, brother. Even the wolf and tiger armies are trapped and numb, liquidity exhaustion is real. Halving cycle invalidated? Then our entire theory would be useless. The most terrifying thing about a quiet period in the track is that you can't escape, how can small and medium projects survive? Where are the catalysts? Can anyone give a definite answer? Waited so long and still no response, I should have just run in 2024.

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