Recently, the trend of Bitcoin looks quite interesting. The rapid surge on the early morning of the 15th was quite fierce, once reaching around 97,900, but then lost momentum. This kind of momentum decay after a peak usually paves the way for subsequent adjustments.

From the daily chart, although there were consecutive large bullish candles earlier, even breaking through the upper Bollinger Band at one point, this strong move did not open up new upward space. Now it has shifted to a retracement and correction phase, with the candlesticks beginning to weaken, and signals of a potential top becoming more apparent.

Looking more closely at the 4-hour level, it becomes even clearer. Previously, the bulls concentrated their efforts to push up the lows, but the 98,000 level has become a clear bottleneck. If it cannot hold steady or break through here, it is highly likely that this rebound will end, and the market control will revert back to the bears.

In the short term, an interesting point is that the highs are gradually decreasing, and each rebound is weaker than the last. Although a quick breakdown has not yet occurred, the downward momentum is accumulating, and the overall structure looks more like "a rebound, then continuing downward."

From a multi-timeframe perspective, a pullback after a surge is highly probable, and the medium to long-term tone remains bearish.

**Trading Recommendations**:
- For medium to long-term, consider gradually shorting in the 96,500-97,500 range, with the first target at 90,000
- If it breaks below 90,000, further focus on the 87,200-84,500 region
- Keep position sizes between 3%-5% to allow enough buffer for short-term volatility