January 17: Bitcoin and Ethereum Whiteboard Review, Market Direction Judgment

**Bitcoin Trend Analysis**

On the daily chart, Bitcoin surged but showed signs of stagnation, leaving a small bearish candle. The 95,000 level remains a key support for the bulls, but it’s feeling a bit strained. The Bollinger Bands are not widening much, and the short-term moving averages are still arranged upward. The MACD fast and slow lines are still rising, but trading volume has started to shrink. After the KDJ golden cross, a reversal signal has appeared. The VR indicator is oscillating around 110.

The 4-hour chart warrants more attention. 95,000 is a critical short-term support; if broken, it will test the 93,800 zone. Currently, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, the short-term moving averages are flattening, and the MACD has formed a death cross with a green histogram, indicating downward momentum. The KDJ is also turning downward, showing a potential reversal. The VR is sideways around 280. The 98,000 level is very important—if it cannot be broken, a pullback is likely; if broken, a move toward 100,000 could be possible.

**Ethereum Trend Analysis**

On the daily chart, the rebound failed to break above the MA256 moving average. The 3400 level is heavily resistant. Until a confirmed breakout and stabilization occur, don’t expect a sustained strong bullish trend.

On the 4-hour chart, the upper Bollinger Band is trending downward, while the middle and lower bands are expanding. The price has stabilized around the middle band after a decline. The MACD bearish histogram has been increasing, and the KDJ has a downward divergence with a death cross. The RSI is oscillating lower, indicating bearish signals are concentrated. However, the retracement isn’t very deep, which suggests some trap for short-sellers.

The hourly chart shows more interesting signals. The MACD bearish histogram has significantly shrunk, the KDJ has a bullish crossover and is diverging upward, and the RSI is turning up from low levels. The short-term retracement momentum is gradually weakening.

**Short-term Trading Ideas**

$BTC: If the price retraces to the 94,080–94,730 zone, consider going long. The rebound target is set at 96,200–97,400. If the rebound reaches 97,530–99,100, consider reversing to short positions, targeting the 93,600–88,600 zone.

$ETH: When the price retraces to the 3,221–3,253 zone, it’s suitable to go long, with targets at 3,315–3,430. When the price rebounds to the 3,433–3,470 zone, look for short opportunities, with targets down at 3,220–3,080.

Overall, both assets are at critical junctures and are very fragile. Confirm support levels before trading, and prioritize risk management.