January 17 Market Observation: The day was characterized by range-bound oscillation. What’s the outlook for the future?

【Bitcoin Trend Analysis】

From a daily chart perspective, after this rally, a small bearish candle with stagnation appeared. The bulls are still holding firm at the 95,000 key resistance line. Although the Bollinger Bands are not widely open, the short-term moving averages remain in an upward pattern. The MACD’s fast and slow lines are still trending upward, but the energy is noticeably weakening, giving a somewhat exhausted feeling. The KDJ has completed a golden cross and is now turning downward, while the VR indicator is oscillating around the 110 zone.

On the four-hour chart, the pace is even more rapid—95,000 is a critical short-term level. If it cannot hold, the price may test the 93,800 area. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with the middle band flattening. Meanwhile, the MACD has already formed a death cross and is heading downward, with increasing green bars. The KDJ is showing signs of turning downward during its decline. The key level is 98,000, which acts as a watershed between bulls and bears. Whether it can be effectively broken through and stabilized is very important. A successful breakout could push the price toward the 100,000 mark, while failure to break may lead to a retracement.

【Ethereum Situation】

On the daily chart, the rebound touched the MA256 moving average but failed to break through. The 3400 level is a strong resistance. Without a clear breakthrough and stabilization, expecting a sustained bullish trend is unrealistic.

On the four-hour chart, the upper Bollinger Band is already trending downward with signs of narrowing, while the middle and lower bands are expanding upward. The current price is relying on the middle band to halt the decline and repair. The MACD bearish momentum continues to grow, the KDJ has formed a death cross and is diverging downward, and the RSI is oscillating lower—these are all bearish signals. However, there is a detail: the retracement is not very deep, which suggests a potential trap for short-sellers.

A turning point appears on the hourly chart—MACD bearish momentum is significantly shrinking, the KDJ has formed a golden cross and is diverging upward, and the RSI is turning upward from a low level. The short-term retracement momentum is gradually weakening, which is a positive sign.

【Practical Trading Suggestions】

For Bitcoin: If the price retraces to the 94,080–94,730 range, consider entering long positions. For the rebound, target the 96,200–97,400 zone. Conversely, if the price rebounds to the 97,530–99,100 area, consider short positions. Downside targets are 93,600 and even 88,600.

For Ethereum: The rhythm suggests that a pullback to the 3,221–3,253 range is suitable for long entries, with targets set at 3,315–3,430. If the price rebounds to the 3,433–3,470 zone, consider short positions, with targets looking down to 3,220–3,080.