#美国核心物价涨幅不及市场预估 The most heartbreaking truth in trading: Why do you always get caught up in the noise?

When you look at the charts, what do you notice—fluctuations on the daily line, fluctuations on the weekly line, even the 4-hour line is shining brightly. But behind this hides a pattern that most people overlook: the larger the time cycle, the rarer the truly meaningful market movements. Ironically, the longer the cycle, the clearer the price structure becomes, and the less interference there is.

Where does this root cause lie? Simply put, it’s one sentence—big market moves are driven by large funds, and every move of these big funds is constrained by the market fundamentals. They don’t move without reason.

On a deeper level: the market expectations generated by fundamentals are at play. Expectations don’t just appear out of nowhere; they are formed through the accumulation of time, the diffusion of information, and ultimately, the consensus in the market. Therefore, every shift on a large cycle is almost a gradual process—you rarely see a sudden explosion.

There is a subtle balance here: on one side, you need to follow the market sentiment reflected by technical analysis, swinging with it; on the other side, you must wait for the fundamental expectations to reach consensus among traders. Only when both lines align does the market have vitality. If one is missing, it’s just a fleeting pulse that quickly vanishes into smoke.

Once you understand this principle, you’ll see why chasing gains and selling at a loss in small cycles is so exhausting and always leads to losses—frankly speaking, you’re just a sucker for the noise in the price. The real opportunities to profit are often buried in longer timeframes. If you’re still trading solo and reckless, the probability of hitting a truly meaningful market move is virtually zero.