Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Consolidating Near $78.00 as Technical Risks Mount

Current Market Dynamics

Silver (XAG/USD) continues to trade around the $78.00 mark during Thursday’s Asian session, with the precious metal showing limited directional conviction. The session has witnessed a modest 0.40% decline, though price action remains anchored above critical support structures. Specifically, XAG/USD is maintaining ground above yesterday’s low and a bullish trend line established earlier this month stationed approximately $77.00—an area that has proven resilient for buyers attempting to stabilize positions.

Technical Support Framework Under Scrutiny

The near-term technical landscape presents a layered support system that warrants close monitoring. The 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently positioned near $75.65 and trending upward, serves as an intermediate safety net for short-term traders. As long as XAG/USD maintains its footing above these confluence zones, bulls retain a slight tactical advantage and any corrective dips could attract fresh buying interest. However, weakness below $77.00 would materially weaken this narrative.

Indicator Signals Suggest Cautious Equilibrium

Technical indicators are sending mixed but increasingly cautious signals. The MACD is approaching zero from below, signaling that recent bearish pressure is starting to dissipate—though the indicator has not yet turned decisively bullish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) rests at 47, reflecting a genuinely neutral market devoid of clear overbought or oversold extremes. This balanced reading suggests momentum could swing either direction depending on which support level breaks first.

Downside Scenarios for Silver Price Forecast

Should XAG/USD decisively break beneath the $77.00 trend line and $75.65 SMA, technical selling could accelerate lower. The psychological $75.00 barrier represents the next critical downside target, followed by additional support in the $74.00 region if selling pressure persists. These levels may eventually establish a trading floor, but breaching $75.00 would signal a meaningful shift in near-term sentiment from consolidation to deterioration.

The Bottom Line

Silver’s current holding pattern masks growing technical fragility. While immediate supports retain importance, the silver price forecast increasingly points toward a test of lower levels if conviction fails to materialize above $77.00.