Recently, the sentiment among options traders has shown a clear shift. Investors who once anticipated a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2026 are now gradually adjusting their strategies and are more optimistic about the possibility that the Fed will keep the policy rate stable throughout the year.

This change in expectations was clearly signaled by the market starting last Friday — the latest US employment data (NFP) showed an unexpected decrease in the unemployment rate, which in turn deepened the market's belief that the Fed will remain on hold.

In response, industry analyst Robin pointed out: "The current employment market situation is quite complex, and inflationary pressures still exist. Based on the data, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at least until March has significantly increased." This means that expectations for a rate cut in the short term have been further subdued.

Such macroeconomic shifts often trigger a chain reaction in crypto assets. Mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have a clear correlation with Federal Reserve policy expectations — when rate cut expectations rise, risk assets usually benefit; conversely, when the Fed is likely to delay adjustments, market risk appetite tends to shrink. Investors should closely monitor the evolution of this policy rhythm and its impact on liquidity in the crypto market.