2026-01-16 10:26:49

The recent week has been quite good for BTC, climbing from 87-88k USD all the way up to the 95-96k range, with a peak touching 97k. The weekly increase reached 8-10%, and trading volume has also gently expanded. Short sellers have closed out over $700 million in this rally. The US stock market hasn't been idle either, with the Nasdaq leading the gains and the tech AI sector remaining strong. The S&P 500 also saw a slight rise, but the financial sector lagged due to credit concerns. Overall market sentiment remains cautious.

The macro logic driving this rally is actually quite clear. On one side, weak non-farm employment data (only 50k new jobs, below expectations), and on the other, stable CPI, both reinforcing expectations of rate cuts. Geopolitical risk has also eased, resulting in high-risk assets like BTC moving upward. However, internal policy disagreements within the Federal Reserve add uncertainty, suppressing risk appetite. Fortunately, the ongoing AI boom and gradually improving liquidity have partially offset this pressure.

Looking into next week, both opportunities and risks should be watched closely. If non-farm data continues to be weaker than the 55k-73k expected range, Nasdaq remains strong, and ETF inflows persist, BTC likely has a good chance to surge toward $95,000 to $100,000. Conversely, if non-farm employment suddenly rebounds strongly, geopolitical tensions escalate, or the probability of rate cuts at the January FOMC meeting decreases, then a correction risk emerges, potentially dropping below $85,000 or even $80,000.

BTC-1,57%

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GateUser-3824aa38

· 7h ago

97k touched and then ran away. The biggest fear in this kind of market is the non-farm payroll data suddenly turning against us. At that point, even 80,000 dollars won't be able to hold.

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BlockDetective

· 7h ago

Short positions closed for 700 million. This move is indeed quite aggressive, but I still think the 97k high point feels a bit fake, and it seems likely to be hammered back next week. --- With such strong expectations of rate cuts, no wonder the AI sector is soaring, but the financial sector dragging behind is a signal to watch out for. --- Honestly, 95k-100k sounds pretty good, but if non-farm payrolls suddenly rebound strongly, it could cause a brain meltdown. I might lose some sleep over the weekend. --- Liquidity improvement is real, but the internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve are really unsettling, feeling like they could reverse at any time. --- If the 80k support level is truly broken, I’ll need to rethink my holdings strategy. I'm still a bit nervous right now. --- From 87k to 97k, a 10% increase in a week. This pace is a bit fast. Such a fierce rebound makes it more likely to be hammered down. What do you all think? --- Continuous ETF inflows are indeed a good sign, but don’t forget that the last time inflows were the strongest was near the high point. --- Non-farm payrolls at 50k are so weak yet it still pushes to 97k, indicating the market is really eager for rate cuts. I'm a bit worried that this expectation might be overextended.

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RugDocScientist

· 7h ago

95,000 to 100,000 still depends on non-farm payrolls, can't be too optimistic.

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TheShibaWhisperer

· 7h ago

97k already touched and still hesitating? This wave of market movement is driven by the expectation of interest rate cuts. The short sellers being wiped out with $700 million isn't a joke. The non-farm payroll data being so bad is actually a positive. Interestingly, the Federal Reserve is still fighting internally, and risk appetite is being tightly suppressed. If you ask me, we should wait until next week's non-farm payroll data to determine the fate. The target of 95,000 to 100,000 is very tempting, but what I fear more is a sudden rebound crashing down. Below $80,000 is not a dream. The AI sector is still carrying the entire market; this is truly a safe haven.

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SatoshiLeftOnRead

· 7h ago

Shorts closed with 700 million, yet they dare to rebound? This pace is a bit fast. --- 97k is within reach, and I want to call it quits? I don't believe this wave will just end like that. --- Non-farm payroll data is so bad but still rising, indicating that the main players don't really care about employment data. --- $100,000 is right in front of us; the $80,000 support level must hold. --- The strength of this NASDAQ move, the AI sector really carried the whole scene. --- Once the rate cut expectation emerged, BTC was like taking a reassuring pill; the logic indeed holds. --- The financial sector was cut down, which was expected. Why isn't the credit situation over yet? --- Liquidity improvement is the key. As long as shorts are liquidated, I feel confident to keep holding. --- If the FOMC hadn't cut rates back then, it might have directly pushed the price into the 8s. --- The AI boom can't withstand macro risks; can this rally hold up... --- Can geopolitical cooling really push BTC higher? That seems a bit too simplistic. --- Reaching $100,000 depends on non-farm payrolls continuing to surprise, otherwise it's just a false alarm.

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DegenDreamer

· 7h ago

97k reached, the short position was liquidated again, this wave was indeed comfortable

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